本文继续聊《红色通缉》一书背后的故事。上回提到，作者布劳德获得了他在东欧的第一个任务——去波兰考察一家国营的公共汽车生产厂，为世界银行准备工厂私有化的报告。在那里，他受到了波兰厂长的热情款待，甚至提出可以提供一个女人供他取暖。厂长如此殷勤的原因很简单，他希望通过作者的报告，从世界银行获得贷款，帮助工厂度过难关。
这家公交车工厂的处境与很多中国东北老工业基地类似。在计划经济体制下，这些工厂生产的商品无法满足市场需求，而且还负担了很多社会职能，如厂办学校、幼儿园等。整个城镇都依托工厂运行，但也从工厂获得收入。一旦市场经济的浪潮袭来，工厂无法生存，整个小镇也将一同沉沦。
作者毕业于斯坦福大学，对这些问题自然一目了然。他知道若想让企业盈利，唯一的办法就是裁减大部分员工，甩掉不必要的包袱。尽管当地生活条件艰苦，但那位厂长已经竭尽全力好好招待他了。所以，他在报告中除了提出减员增效的方案外，还提供了一个备选方案，即世界银行和波兰政府继续补贴该企业。然而，他的领导只保留了裁员方案，并要求他在波兰厂长和世界银行官员面前宣讲。这份报告招致了波兰人的不满，他们觉得作者背叛了他们。因此，作者的第一个任务在尴尬的氛围中结束了，算不上多成功。
不过，这次波兰之行对作者本人来说并非一无所获。一次，他在和波兰陪同人员一起吃早餐时，发现对方正在翻看当地报纸上密密麻麻的数字。作者好奇地询问，得知这是波兰第一次私有化的成果。股票交易市场一夜之间诞生，国有企业纷纷改制为股份制公司，股票可以在股市上自由交易。作者向陪同人员请教了这些数字的意义，并进行了简单的计算。他发现这些股票出人意料地便宜，相对于公司净资产价格来说很划算，更妙的是交易没有任何限制，外国人也可以购买。于是，作者开始利用空余时间，在陪同人员的帮助下，在当地银行开户，兑换成波兰货币，大举购买这些刚私有化的国企股票。虽然不能说这是他第一桶金，但这些股票后来大都翻了几倍，甚至十几倍。
这段经历可以说是作者进入金融行业的启蒙课。这也说明了在长期实行计划经济的国家，由于缺乏市场价格的信息，对资产的估值往往非常混乱，尤其是在计划经济即将崩溃的后期，大部分工厂、企业都经营不善，价值被大大低估。而像作者这样有资本主义生活经验的人，能够轻易发现其中的机会，并找到致富的途径。
类似的情节也出现在前段时间热播的电视剧《繁华》中。剧中的九书因经历过解放前大上海的繁荣，对金融市场有基本的了解，因此在九十年代中国重开股市时，她也成了股神一般的存在。这也说明，在政府严重干预市场导致经济陷入困境时，反而可能隐藏着巨大机会，因为价格被扭曲，有很多估值低但实际价值很高的企业等待着人们去挖掘。最近的例子或许就是阿根廷。可惜国内似乎没有什么渠道可以投资阿根廷。
This article continues the story behind the book Red Wanted. Browder was given his first assignment in Eastern Europe - to visit a state-run bus production plant in Poland to prepare a report for the World Bank on its privatization. There, he received warm hospitality from the Polish factory director, who even offered to provide a woman to keep him warm. The reason why the factory director was so attentive was simple: he hoped to get a loan from the World Bank to help the factory tide over its difficulties through the author's report.
The bus factory is in a similar position to many of the old industrial bases in northeast China. Under the planned economy, these factories could not produce enough goods to meet market demand, and they also took on many social functions, such as factory-run schools and kindergartens. The whole town runs on the factory, but it also gets its income from it. Once the wave of the market economy hits, the factory will not survive, and the whole town will go down with it.
The author, who graduated from Stanford University, knows these questions well. He knew that the only way to make the business profitable was to lay off most of the staff and get rid of unnecessary baggage. In spite of the difficult living conditions, the factory director did his best to treat him well. Therefore, in addition to the plan of reducing staff and increasing efficiency, he also provided an alternative in the report, that is, the World Bank and the Polish government continue to subsidize the enterprise. However, his leaders kept only the layoff proposal and asked him to speak before the Polish factory director and World Bank officials. The report drew the ire of Poles, who felt betrayed by the authors. So the author's first assignment ended in embarrassment, not much of a success.
However, the trip to Poland was not entirely for the author. Once, while eating breakfast with his Polish minder, he found him flipping through the dense numbers in the local newspaper. The author inquired curiously and learned that this was the result of Poland's first privatization. Stock markets were born overnight, and state-owned enterprises were transformed into joint-stock companies, on which shares could be traded freely. The author consulted the accompanying staff on the meaning of these figures and performed a simple calculation. He found the shares surprisingly cheap, a bargain relative to the company's net asset price, and even better, there were no restrictions on trading and foreigners could buy them. So the author began to use his spare time, with the help of his minders, to open accounts in local banks, convert them into Polish currency, and buy up the shares of these newly privatised state-owned enterprises. Although it can not be said that this is his first bucket of gold, but most of these stocks later multiplied several times, even ten times.
This experience can be said to be the author's initiation into the financial industry. This also shows that in countries with long-term planned economy, due to the lack of market price information, the valuation of assets is often very chaotic, especially in the later stage of the planned economy is about to collapse, most of the factories and enterprises are not well run, and the value is greatly undervalued. People with capitalist life experience, like the author, can easily spot the opportunities and find ways to get rich.
A similar plot also appeared in the popular TV series "Bustling" some time ago. Having experienced the prosperity of pre-liberation Shanghai and having a basic understanding of the financial markets, Jiushu in the drama became a divine presence when China reopened its stock market in the 1990s. This also shows that when the economy is in trouble due to heavy government intervention in the market, there may be huge opportunities hidden, because prices are distorted, and there are many companies with low valuations but high real value waiting to be discovered. Perhaps the most recent example is Argentina.
Accompanying the article: A manga-style illustration in red shows a smiling businessman in a suit standing in front of a factory with a report in his hand and gold coins scattered around him. The chimney of the plant extends upward to blend in with the World Bank logo, symbolizing the factory's connection with the World Bank. The whole picture is full of mystery and opportunity coexist atmosphere.
