一眨眼俄国开战已经过去一整年了，去年的2月24日是战争爆发的时候。尽管战争结束现在看来还是遥遥无期，但是很多媒体都发布了了回顾文章，应该说这一年来，这场战争的进程超过了所有人的预测，无论是亲乌克兰的还是亲俄罗斯的人都没有想到战争会达成现在这样的局面。西方的政客和观察家一般认为在开战很短时间内，基辅就会陷落战争也会结束。按照普京和他的将军们最早的设想也是如此，从开战初期一路大军从白俄罗斯直扑基辅就可以看出，普京采取的是和苏联时期入侵捷克斯洛伐克和阿富汗时相同的战术，都是派空降兵控制关键机场然后转运大部队直接控制对方首府和政府要人，以期望在短短几天时间内就能够结束战争的。但是由于北约早早的就曝光了俄军的入侵计划，乌克兰早有准备，虽然俄军精锐空降兵完成了突袭占领机场的任务，但是机场跑道已经被乌军破坏，后续的大部队无法及时投入。为乌军构筑基辅的防御圈争取到了宝贵的时间，使得占领基辅的计划最终泡了汤。战争由此长期化。
俄军见直取基辅的计划失败之后，就开始集中力量占领顿巴斯地区，但是随著西方军援的加码，乌军获得了海马斯等远程精确打击的火力，虽然在火炮数量上不占优势，但是由于西方武器的精度较高，双方在战线上基本势均力敌，战线没有多大的变化。
在战争一周年到来之际，西方媒体和西方政客又开始迫不及待的宣称普京已经输了，如果从最开始的计划来看，俄军没有速胜确实是计划没有实现。但是如果说俄罗斯输了，现在看还为时尚早。显然现在战争已经进入消耗战的阶段，而乌克兰虽然在欧洲算是一个比较大的国家，但是和俄国相比国力相差悬殊。现在完全是靠西方的援助，才能坚持把仗打下去。现代战争从一战的总体战开始，就打的是国家的工业能力和经济实力。虽然西方世界都是所谓的发达经济体，经济规模远超俄罗斯，但是经过这么多年的去工业化和经济的金融泡沫化，西方世界除了垄断一些生产效率比较低的高端产业之外。基础工业和制造业基本都转移到了东亚地区。而且俄罗斯可以为了赢得战争，将经济体制转入战时状态，而西方国家则不可能为了一个遥远的乌克兰，而进入战时经济，因为那就意味着政客失去选票而垮台。所以他们就只能依靠自己手中掌握的主流媒体逼迫俄罗斯认输。
战争刚开始时国际社会一面倒的谴责俄罗斯，制裁俄罗斯。主流媒体上也是将俄罗斯指为入侵者。一开始我也是这样认为的，毕竟很明显发起进攻的一方是俄罗斯。但是如果深入理解这个地区的整个历史，会发现双方都不是那么无辜的。在油管上听了一个台湾教授关于俄乌历史的讲座，对他的观点深以为然。显然俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯，这三个国家之间的历史渊源非常之深，长期以来就是同一个国家——同属沙皇俄国。特别是乌克兰地区民族成分更加复杂，而且乌克兰的首都基辅实际上是罗斯诸国的起源，最早由北欧维京人最先在这里建立贸易据点之后，才有莫斯科等诸螺丝公国出现。所以对俄罗斯来说，基辅可以说是他的历史和文化首都，具有非常重要的历史意义。就像长安才是中国历史上的六朝古都一样，历史意义远比北京重要。而乌克兰作为民族，历史上一直都是沙皇俄国的附庸，甚至是沙俄帝国的组成部分，只有在一战结束后沙俄解体，短暂的出现过一个乌克兰人民共和国。随后又很快被列宁领导的苏埃俄国所吞并。而且在当时的版图上，引发这次俄乌冲突的原爆点——克里米亚的归属问题是没有任何争议的，是绝对属于俄国的。只是在赫鲁晓夫时期为了体现俄乌的同盟关系，左口袋装进右口袋，送给了乌克兰。在2014年乌克兰爆发颜色革命，想要投入西方怀抱。既然要分家，就像夫妻离婚一样，财产重新划分是有一定道理的。而且更复杂的是，现在的乌克兰西部，在二战结束以前根本就不属于乌克兰，而是属于波兰的一部分。是在二战中由三巨头之中的丘吉尔和斯大林私自定下的协议，决定将波兰的这部分领土，交给当时的苏联。于是斯大林就把这份波兰领土交给了作为加盟共和国之一的乌克兰。这样才让乌克兰的边界向西部扩展。而为了补偿波兰，则将德国的一部分领土送给了波兰，实际上现在的波兰国境线是整体平移了很大一段距离的。所以如果乌克兰对领土抱有执念的话，将来和波兰爆发矛盾也只是时间问题。
最后关于普京开战的理由之一去纳粹化，乌克兰也确实存在纳粹化的问题，二战期间，乌克兰人总体上是和纳粹德国保持合作态度的，其中的代表人物就是班德拉。这也可以理解，因为斯大林时期执行的征粮政策，造成了乌克兰的普遍大饥荒，相当于对乌克兰人进行了一次种族灭绝。而班德拉领导的乌克兰民族主义者虽然打着民族主义大旗，但是作为纳粹帮凶，仍然做出了和德国纳粹一样的种族灭绝暴行，比如屠杀西乌克兰地区的波兰人的沃伦惨案。而且和德国不同，乌克兰并没有清算这段历史，在2014年颜色革命后，为了营造反俄氛围，还将班德拉封为国父，为当年加入纳粹仆从军的老兵提供免费医疗，享受退伍军人待遇。
总的来说，这场战争，还是一战后，不合理的凡尔赛体系所划分的欧洲版图的余波。不管怎样，用战争解决这些问题，都是不对的，还是应该考虑当地民众的意愿。退一步说，普通百姓不管被哪个政府统治都是当韭菜的命，谁赢谁输其实差别并不大。所以，还是请相关国家的领导人，自己站出来决斗，放过普通百姓，和那些充当士兵的平民子弟。
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It has been a whole year since Russia started the war, on February 24th last year, when the war broke out. Although the end of the war now seems far away, many media outlets have published reviews of the progress of the war, it should be said that over the past year, the war has gone further than anyone expected. Neither pro-Ukrainian nor pro-Russian people expected the war to come to this point. Western politicians and observers generally assumed that within a short period of time, Kiev would fall and the war would be over. In the early days of the war, as Mr Putin and his generals had originally imagined, a march from Belarus to Kiev showed, Mr Putin was following the same tactics used in the Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan, sending airborne troops to take control of key airfields and then moving large forces to take direct control of the other party's capital and government figures. Hoping to end the war in a matter of days. However, as NATO had exposed Russia's invasion plan in advance, Ukraine had been prepared. Although the Russian elite airborne troops completed the task of seizing the airport by surprise, the runway of the airport had been damaged by the Ukrainian army, and the subsequent large troops could not be deployed in time. Buying the Ukrainian army valuable time to build Kiev's defensive perimeter, the plan to capture Kiev was ultimately scuppered. The war was thus prolonged.
The Russian army began to concentrate on occupying the Donbass region after the failure of the plan to take Kiev directly. However, with the increase of Western military aid, the Ukrainian army gained the firepower of long-range precision attack such as Hamis. Although the number of artillery was not superior, the two sides were basically equal in the front because of the high accuracy of Western weapons, and the front did not change much.
On the first anniversary of the war, the Western media and Western politicians are once again eager to declare that Putin has lost, if the original plan is anything to go by, the Russian military's lack of a quick victory is indeed a failure of the plan. But it is too early to say if Russia has lost. Obviously now the war has entered the phase of attrition, and Ukraine, although a relatively large country in Europe, but compared with Russia's national strength is far from perfect. It is now entirely dependent on Western aid to keep the war going. Modern warfare, from the beginning of World War I, was fought over the industrial capacity and economic power of nations. Although the western world is the so-called developed economy, the economic scale is far larger than Russia, but after so many years of deindustrialization and economic financial bubble, the Western world in addition to the monopoly of some relatively low production efficiency of high-end industries. Basic industries and manufacturing have largely moved to East Asia. And Russia can turn its economy on a war footing to win a war, while the West cannot turn its economy on a war footing for a distant Ukraine, because that would mean politicians losing votes and collapsing. So they rely on their own mainstream media to force Russia to throw in the towel.
At the beginning of the war, the international community unanimously condemned Russia and imposed sanctions on Russia. The mainstream media also refers to Russia as an intruder. That's what I thought at first, because it was clear that Russia was the aggressor. But a deeper understanding of the region's entire history reveals that neither side is so innocent. I listened to a Taiwan professor's lecture on the history of Russia and Ukraine on YouTube, and was deeply impressed by his views. Obviously Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, these three countries have very deep historical ties, and have been the same country for a long time -- the same Czarist Russia. In particular, the ethnic composition of Ukraine is more complex, and Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, is actually the origin of the Rus states. It was only after the Vikings in northern Europe first established trading bases here that Moscow and other screw principalities emerged. So for Russia, Kiev is its historical and cultural capital, which is of great historical importance. Just as Chang 'an was the ancient capital of the six dynasties in Chinese history, the historical significance is far more important than Beijing. Ukraine, as a nation, has always been a vassal of Tsarist Russia in history, and even a part of the Tsarist Russian Empire. Only after the end of World War I, when the Tsarist Russia disintegrated, there was briefly a Ukrainian People's Republic. It was soon annexed by Lenin's Soviet Russia. In addition, the territory of Crimea, the ground zero of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, is not in dispute. It belongs to Russia. During the Khrushchev administration, the left pocket was put in the right pocket and given to Ukraine to show the alliance between Russia and Ukraine. In 2014 Ukraine had a color revolution and wanted to embrace the West. Since there is to be a separation, as couples do when they divorce, there is some justification for the redivision of assets. And to make matters more complicated, what is now western Ukraine was not part of Ukraine at all until the end of World War II. It was part of Poland. It was a private agreement between the Big Three, Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin, in World War II, to hand over this part of Poland to the Soviet Union. Stalin gave this Polish territory to Ukraine as one of the republics. This allowed Ukraine's borders to expand westward. In order to compensate Poland, part of Germany was given to Poland. In fact, the whole Polish border was moved by a large distance. So if Ukraine has a territorial obsession, it is only a matter of time before tensions with Poland erupt.
Finally, one of Putin's reasons for going to war is denazification. There was a real problem of Nazification in Ukraine. During World War II, Ukrainians generally cooperated with Nazi Germany, and one of the representative figures was Bandera. This is understandable, given the widespread famine in Ukraine caused by Stalin's policy of food expropriation, which amounted to a genocide of Ukrainians. The Ukrainian nationalists led by Bandera, though under the banner of nationalism, still committed the same genocidal atrocities as the German Nazis as accomplices of the Nazis, such as the Warren massacre of Poles in western Ukraine. And unlike Germany, Ukraine has not come to terms with its past. In order to create an anti-Russian atmosphere after the 2014 color revolution, it named Bandera as the father of the nation and provided free medical care and veterans treatment for those who joined the Nazi army.
In general, the war is still the aftermath of the perverse Versailles system that created the map of Europe after World War I. Either way, it is wrong to use war to solve these problems. The will of the local people should be taken into account. To say the least, ordinary people are just like leek no matter which government they are ruled by. There is not much difference between who wins and who loses. So let the leaders of the countries concerned stand up and fight themselves and spare the ordinary people and the children of the civilians who are soldiers.
