It is a rather common English idiom, but since we are at an international platform, I will still have to explain it! Sigh. People always like explanation here!
"Running around like a headless chicken" is an idiom that means to act in a frantic, disorganized, or uncoordinated way. For example, you might describe someone as running around like this if they are trying to get many things done at once but aren't being very productive.
Generated by AI, DALLE-3 Model
Prompt: running around like headless chicken cartoon, image of lion on the chicken, dark background
After my last couple of posts Khal and Nomad, the two Leo people I know, is running around like this. Please help those poor souls! They are feeling like that someone have taken their favorite candy out of their hands and they are throwing a tantrum.
Just to recap the premise of this, I am testing a simple hypothsis: Most of the new Leo onboards do not hold any meaningful hive or Leo assets.
If you think about it rationally this is exactly what you expect. Why would new people own assets? They might own some if they are 'humans', they won't if they are just 'accounts'. Yes, there is a difference between humans and accounts.
When I first started looking at the data, I tried to fine tune the hypothesis a bit. I wanted to know what 'most' is? Then I wanted to know what 'meaningful' assets means, numerically. So when I did the first analysis on a sample thread described in this post, where it all started, I arrived at a number.
~57% of the 'active' Leo users hold less than 1 hive or 20 Leo worth of assets
This is the modified hypothesis that I have been testing with data. That 57% is not a magic number, it could be 50% or 60%, I don't care. They are both BAD for hive onboarding.
Now Khal like to say that there shouldn't be any argument with data. I disagree.
As a scientist with two masters degrees and a PhD, and a life-long student of science, I will say that argument with data is VERY common. The comment should be, there shouldn't be any argument with RAW data! That is a major difference. This is simply because people tend to focus on certain element of the data, the part they are looking for are important to them.
Khal published this dashboard below:
Although it looks sleek! But this doesn't have the information I am looking for. None of these numbers will help me test my hypothesis:
~57% (or whatever %) of the 'active' Leo users hold less than 1 hive or 20 Leo worth of assets
I am not interested in Cumulative HP or LP of Leo users. I have that info readily available, with names! :) For example, if that is 30M HP, Marky's HP is included in that, he is an 'active' inLeo user, but I don't think any of us are interested in that information. This is simply because Marky is a 2016 account :)
I am making steady progress. Now I have extracted data from 7 threads in January. They are randomly chosen, but I took threads with large comments (in the thousands) to help me increase the level 1 unique commenters. They are as follows:
leothread-2025-01-27-14-01
leothread-2025-01-26-07-39
leothread-2025-01-25-11-55
leothread-2025-01-24-09-32
leothread-2025-01-23-12-37
leothread-2025-01-22-13-09
leothread-2025-01-21-13-41
This list returns 481 unique commenters.
Here is the frequency distribution of this combined data. Please note that visually they are identical to previously presented smaller samples! As they should, if my hypothesis is correct.
The analysis was presented here and here.
I like to highlight the following:
I can also see how much cumulative hive and Leo these 481 people hold.
| Token | Hive | Leo |
|---|---|---|
| Stats |
The Sum is the total amount of Hive and Leo these 481 people hold. On the dashboard, this is the equivalent information Khal is presenting, and it is irrelevant. I will show you why.
These are the top 40 names sorted by their hive holding. These are all old users. I infact know more than half of these people :) How much hive or leo they hold is not relevant for this discussion. They will show up very well on the cross plot. When I plot these accounts with the dates they plot as large circles to the left in the 2016-18 space.
As an example, I am not interested in the upper and middle part of the chart, only interested in the magenta oval area: the new users. People who have accumulated Leo from 2016-2023 is irrevant to this discussion. I hope I make this point abanduntly clear.
I have created a Power Bi dashboard so that I can do the data analysis along various axis and filters. Hopefully, the 'data' shows itself and my hypothesis is tested :)
This is our 481 data points plotted as a X-Y scatter plot. X- axis is total hive, and Y-axis is Total Leo. Both axes are in log scale to improve visibility. Circle size is HBD is savings. The reason I am chosing Power BI now as opposed to static plots, is because now I want to interactively filter the data.
The Leo onboarding program that was DHF supported was funded for most of the year 2024, and the process is ongoing into 2025. I will now turn all the accounts created before and leave only the ones created in 2024-25, on this sample. I will do it selectively.
First 2025 only.
Yeah, as expect mostly empty plot. Obviously new users won't buy stake or get stake. But the question is how little? 211 accounts.
How many owns more than 1 Total hive? 6
How many owns more than 20 Total Leo? 5
But that is not really exciting, let us look into 2024, the whole year from this sample. How many we get? 124 accounts.
How many owns more than 1 Total hive? 52
How many owns more than 20 Leo? 48
Here is the good news, those 52 accounts that holds alteast 1 hive, also holds at least 20 Leo.
Here is that list of accounts.
So we can establish, from this sample 52/124 -> 41% of the 'active' accounts of this sample holds at least 1 hive! However, in this case I will admit, since I am talking about the whole year 2024, those 7 threads are not a big enough sample.
However, is 1 hive a good number? LOL. What can you do with 1 hive, nothing. It was fairly well understood in this blockchain that in order to get out of the dust status (in terms of vote) you typically need 500 HP. Let's see how many has more than 500 total hive?
Mind you these doesn't assume that that these accounts are created by Leo. It just means they have commented on those threads and their account was created within 2024 calendar year.
Finally our familiar plot, (I realize that aesthetically Power Bi sucks), back to datawrapper:
I am only interested in the accounts in the magenta, and they can only be found in the RAW data, not in Khal's dashboard. Mind you dashboard is only there to show you information that is useless to you and them. They just want money, so they are showing it to you to make their case that “all is well”.
Final reminder 354/482 -> 73% of the account hold less than 500 hive. On this sample:
Now that I have this Power BI dashboard, I don't have any data limitation. Meaning I can handle a lot more junk accounts and process larger data pool. I already have the sheet ready for that. I will make plots over the weekend as I find time.
People say total active hive users is anywhere from 8000 to 12000 accounts. If that is correct, and I know it is, that will be 26% of the population :) I have already seen that data. It is worse.
Incoming......
