Results from a Single Leo Thread

Lately I am powered by @beaker007 's data mining service and I simply can't get enough of it! Yesterday I saw that @themarkymark published a post about Leo's new proposal which got me thinking what if I look into specific communities and explore their hive etiquette. I am interested in learning their behavior simply by how they act, post, and interact with the hive blockchain. We are developing to run better queries to question the publicly available data, but I first thought that I can look into a sample.

Generated by AI, DALLE-3; Prompt: a single thread through the needle

Notice: How DALLE-3 failed on the prompt :) I digress, still a nice image though

I took a single sample thread recently. LeoThread 2025-02-02 12:35. Here it is:

@leothreads/leothread-2025-02-02-12-35

The thread has 2575 comments. What @beaker007 's tool does, that it can parse through this data and list names of unique commenters. It doesn't list higher level comments. So, here is that list.

Once I have the list, I can use the querry part of this tool to get relevant hive, SL and now LEO data for all those 125 commenters who commented on that thread. This is my sample. I am not making a determination if this is a good sample or a bad sample. This sample is randomly chosen, and I can choose n-number of other random samples. I can also increase the sample size easily. You saw recently, I have been able to manage 4360 accounts on a single spreadsheet and plots. That is probably about 50% of the active hive users.

My hypothesis that I am trying to test is as follows:

Leo users doesn't hold significant asset in the ecosystem, they hold neither Leo nor Hive.

I like to test this hypothsis by doing a simple data analysis from this sample. My metric is long term investment mindset or holding assets on this ecosystem. Number of comments or threads or transactions means nothing to me.

First thing is to check the held HP of these people. Here is that.

Let me give you the bad news first! Out of 125 accounts, 72 accounts hold ZERO HP. Zip, nada!! That is 57% of the commenters folks!

But, wait!! You will say, this is a LEO thread. It is okay they are not holding HP. We are here to power the layer two chain! They must be holding LEO. Well.....

There you have it. I have their Total Leo (staked + liquid) plotted at the same space. 31 accounts hold ZERO leo, that is 25%. Also 60 accounts hold less than 10 LEO. Wait! Why did you add the first two bins?!

Well, because Leo is worthless. Sorry, no pun intended! 1 hive = 20 Leo currently. So if I am doing it right, the first hive bin on 1 hive is in fact first 3 bins of LEO. 0-1, 1-10, 10-20! That is 73 accounts!! Amazing how the numbers match with behaviors! Yes, that is 58% of the total commenters.

Yes, most of those are shit-posts, shit-comments, useless comments, or spam. Those accounts neither hold any hive or Leo.

Cross Plots

Since we have the data, we can sure cross plot them. Here you go!

(Hive + HP) along the X-axis, and (Leo + Staked Leo) along the Y-axis. No shit! Most of the people are near 0-0 and can't even see them! Pardon my negative axis, I tried to increase visibility!

Alright, you say, bring the log plot! Yes, Ser! (as leo people like to say it)

Y-Axis is log-scale this time, as promised. Circle size is HBD in savings, just for fun. I kept X-axis linear, because there is hardly any data there! LOL!

Are you dissing on a project?

Although I wrote in a tongue-in-cheek fashion, dissing on a project at hive is not my goal. I am simply doing a data mining and showing people what I see. I am also providing data and visuals to support by hypothesis that we are not really getting 1000s of new users of investors by supporting LEO for the last whole year. That has already happened and there is not data to show that we have gained new investors.

If we have not in the last year, why do you think we will in the next year? Doing the same thing over and over again and expect different result is called what now?

It's called Insanity, Ser!