Some time ago a friend from Bulgaria with an interest in alternative histories put to me a question about the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941, here are my thoughts on his premise, please feel free to add your thoughts.
Premis: if either Great Britain or the USA had been in the place of the Soviet Union at the start of Operation Barbarossa in June 1941, then the German invasion would have been defeated. The political situation in the Soviet Union negatively impacted its ability to fight off the German invasion.
Situation – General Outline as at June 1941
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
All in all, while the Soviet Union was fully mobilised for war, these restrictions made any creditable military performance beyond the capabilities of the Red Army as at 22nd June 1941. Only the opportune arrival of the Great Russian ally of generations past, Marshal Winter staved off a greater disaster than was already befalling the people of the Soviet Union and began the process of turning the tide.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
To sum up, the British forces are well trained and motivated, although small in number and lacking equipment. Politically Britain has a driven leader with the ability to carry the people and troops through adversity, despite the blackness of the situation. British diplomacy had been for many centuries a key strategic asset and so it remained, subtly affecting the situation to the Advantage of the national interest (e.g. The Admiral Graf Spee engagement).
The United States of America
As at 22nd June 1941, the USA was neither politically, industrially or militarily ready for war, although this would change rapidly.
Nazi Germany
At the beginning of Operation Barbarossa, the German forces were fully ready for operations and well motivated. Still not at proper strength with combat vehicles, however this lack of suitable types did not hold back the fighting ability of the divisions to a great extent.
Comparison of Equipment – UK - USSR
Heavy Tanks Britain discontinued this line after the Independent Tank (similar to the T28 or T35). The KV1 has no Match in British service. In British service Infantry Tanks had a similar role.
Infantry Tanks The A11 Matilda 1 & A12 Matilda 2 are far superior in armour to the Soviet T-26 or T-50, somewhat slower and with matching armament, only the Flak 18 or Sig 33 (at close range) were capable of stopping these tanks.
Medium/Cruiser Tanks The BT series seem to have been superior to the earlier cruisers and comparable to the A13. The new T-34 is far superior to any British design available at this time.
Light Tanks The British Vickers MkVI is superior to all Soviet light tanks in speed and apart from the T-40, to which it is a fair match, it is superior in armour and armament as well. The Tetrarch was superior to all and comparable to the far later T-70.
Armoured Cars The numerous British types tended to be lighter and more manoeuvrable than their Soviet counterparts; however the Soviet types were far more heavily armed.
Heavy Artillery British forces relied on re-barrelled, WW1 vintage pieces in this role as an erroneous reliance had been place upon Air Power making Artillery obsolete during the 1930’s. The Soviet M1937 Gun-Howitzer had no competition from any British weapon in service.
Field Artillery The British 18 & 25 Pounder Gun/Howitzers were the equal of anything in service with the Soviet Union. The British weapons being slightly inferior in range to the better Soviet items, but with superior RoF and hitting power. The Royal Artillery and the RHA, being organised differently from their Soviet counterpart, use the 18 pdr & 25 pdr in what would be seen as both Regimental and Divisional roles.
Heavy Bomber Aircraft The RAF had in service at this time three useful heavy bombers, with an improved version of the Manchester, the Lancaster coming into series production. This was a long term ongoing development and had no similar capability in the Soviet Air forces.
Medium Bombers The Soviet Union had a workmanlike medium bomber in the Tupelov SB, although it was not in the same class as the British equivalents, the Wellington etc. Again the British development of the Bomber concept achieved a clear superiority.
Light Bombers & Attack Aircraft This was an area of initial failure for the British as the Fairy Battle, the best of the pre-war designs failed miserably in battle without air superiority. The Blenheim was more capable, but still lacking, yet the superlative Mosquito was beginning to enter service and would be the best aircraft of its class seen during the war. A Soviet aircraft, the PE-2 was of great potential, but failed to realise this in the early phases of the war. This is possibly as a result of command failings as the aircraft was a superior type. The Soviet Air forces utilised fighters in great numbers as attack aircraft and expedited the development of the Il-2, the best attack aircraft of the war. The UK had no equivalent to the Il-2 and only the RN really used fighters in the attack role in the early part of the war, although the RAF was developing these tactics.
Fighters The outdated Polikarpov designs that numerically dominated the PVO and other Soviet air forces were out of date and had proved to be unable to cope with very early Me-109s during the Spanish Civil War. Three years on the designs were not able to cope even that well with more advanced types. Newer types, such as the Lagg or Mig were still a good way behind German and British thinking in fighter design. The Spitfire, was at this time the best fighter in the world, with the cannon armed MkV in operational service and serial production in early 1941, supported by the Hurricane (mostly on lesser fronts) this gave Britain a technological edge for a while.
Comparison of Equipment – The United States - USSR
For virtually all of the above categories the US falls down, superior items were just around the corner, in development or being requested by the military; they were rarely in service. Exceptions to this are the M3 Light tank, an excellent vehicle for its time and suitable for service in the medium tank role at the time, M2 Field gun, which is still giving good service today and the B17 bomber which was in its early service.
Possible Scenarios for consideration
Scenario 1: British or U.S. troops are swapped man for man with Soviet troops retaining Soviet Equipment, numbers, organisation and political influences. Only the training, tactics and morale change.
Result: The German advance is slowed and halted a little short of its historical limit; notably fewer casualties are suffered by friendly forces and proportionally more by the Germans. Not a huge difference from the historical outcome.
Scenario 2: British or U.S. culture and civilisation is swapped with the Soviet Union; only the land mass remains the same. Historical situation is as it was at 22nd June 1941.
Result: Both British and American forces are rapidly destroyed by the Germans. Lacking the numbers to be able to face the German onslaught, friendly forces withdraw fighting delaying action as they go. Encirclements by mechanised forces remove large portions of the combatants and insufficient numbers of aircraft allow Germany a costly, but effective, air superiority. The small numbers of troops and aircraft available are insufficient to hold off the enemy. The war in the East is brought to a fairly swift conclusion in Germany's favour as all parties are likely to have engaged in a diplomatic solution to the war.
Scenario 3: As scenario 2, but with the new forces being in proportion with the industrial advancement and preparedness for war as at 22nd June 1941. In this scenario British or American industry has developed to fit in with the Russian supply of human and natural resources. Where it is reasonable to assume that items may appear earlier than in actual history (where development was slowed as a result of lack of industrial capacity etc.) this is applicable. Much of the result of this scenario rests on this and on readiness for war.
Result: Britain, fully transited to war and with an advanced industry is likely to have stopped the German advance with a series of defensive battles in the Ukraine and then gone on to the offensive. This has historically been where the British soldier is at his best. With Political and diplomatic efforts likely to have weakened the axis and trouble fomented in the Balkans, fewer troops would be available to the Germans. Air superiority would almost certainly go to the RAF and British Bombers would cause havoc in the German rear areas and along their logistic chain. Given the situation in Germany at the time, the likely result would be a military coup removing Hitler from power. The USA in the same situation would find itself unready for war, given the way it was blind to the obvious Japanese threat, it is not reasonable to assume that a German threat would be given any greater credence. The result in this case would be identical to that in Scenario 2. If the Americans took the German threat seriously and began their transition to war earlier it is still unlikely that they would have been able to stop the German attack, however the Germans would certainly have had a hard time of it. Partisan warfare would have been more prevalent and more effective than the historical case, this causing major logistical problems. Being unable to hold the enemy in the first place I believe that the Americans would withdraw through the Urals and build their forces. If The Germans could bring them to the negotiating table a peace may have been achieved, if not, then the Americans would in their own time advance across their conquered territory at great loss all round and keep on going until they established a defensive line along Europe’s Atlantic coast.
Scenario 4: (USA only) The US civilisation and culture is situated in Russia, fully ready and transited to a wartime economy ready for Barbarossa.
Result: The Germans make little headway before being turned back. American superior numbers and technology are likely to turn the defeat into a rout that leaves no great amount of time for political manoeuvres, German cities are levelled as their armies are decimated; Germany falls before the end of the year.
Sources/Bibliography
History of the Second World War - Winston S. Churchill, Panzer Leader - Heinz Guderian, Achtung Panzer - Heinz Guderian, The Campaigns of Napoleon - David Chandler, Germany and a Lightening War - Fritz Sternberg, History of the Second World War - Basil Liddel Hart, Numerous websites.
All Images Wikimedia Commons.
