The True Epicentre of the Tragedy in Venezuela.

Historically, humankind has tended to blame nature for the devastation that follows an earthquake. However, a rigorous analysis of the data suggests a far more striking reality: in the 21st century, the number of casualties in an earthquake disaster is not determined by the Richter scale, but by the integrity of government institutions. Venezuela today stands as the most tragic case study of this premise, where institutional collapse has created a scenario of unprecedented vulnerability.

^{One of the many photos of volunteers and rescue workers. Courtesy of my niece, Gilda Ramírez (Central University of Venezuela).}

The myth of magnitude

My story begins by debunking a common belief… Earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding 8 or 9 in countries such as Chile (2010), Mexico (1985) or even the recent tragedy in Turkey (2023), whilst devastating, show a different correlation between power and mortality when compared with failed states. In Venezuela, an earthquake of moderate magnitude (7.2 or 7.5) results in a disproportionately high death toll, estimated by the USGS at between 10,000 and 100,000 people (and even these figures fall short). This disparity is not a geological accident; it is the result of decades of systemic erosion.

Institutions that kill

The statistics are damning: 83 per cent of deaths caused by seismic collapse worldwide occur in unusually corrupt countries. Corruption is not just the theft of public funds; it is the absence of monitoring systems (Venezuela went from having 300 operational stations to just 4), it is the 95 per cent drop in regulated construction activity, and it is the lack of supervision over the quality of concrete used in buildings.

When 80 per cent of the population lives in areas at high risk of earthquakes, and 76.5 per cent live below the poverty line, the earthquake is merely the catalyst for a tragedy that was already written into the blueprints of poorly constructed infrastructure and an absent state.

^{Foreign journalists who decided to confront Venezuela’s acting president.}

The cost of opacity and negligence

The handling of information during crises in Venezuela follows a pattern of secrecy that dates back to the Vargas tragedy in 1999. There is a palpable, macabre contradiction: *whilst the government officially admits to just over 2,000 deaths, the state’s purchase of 10,000 body bags reveals a truth they are trying to conceal.

Added to this is the moral decline of the forces of law and order. The sight of soldiers in immaculate uniforms and white gloves rummaging through rubble in search of dollars, rather than rescuing survivors, illustrates the breakdown of basic trust between the citizen and the state. The “golden window” for rescue operations is closing prematurely, not because of a lack of will on the part of the people, but due to logistical shortcomings and the regime’s prioritisation of its own political survival over human life.

A country is determined but lacking the tools

The economic outlook makes reconstruction almost a pipe dream. With public debt exceeding 400 per cent of GDP —much of it owed to Russia and China under conditions that fall outside international debt restructuring mechanisms— Venezuela lacks the financial and human capital to get back on its feet. The more than 70,000 million dollars lost to corruption is ten times the estimated direct damage caused by the earthquake. The money to save the country existed, but it was used to shield the regime.

^{A former classmate of my niece Gilda, on the Law degree course at the Central University of Venezuela. She would have turned 19 today.
Fate is unpredictable; she lived an hour away from Caracas, and her parents had rented her a flat so she could be closer to the university. Yesterday morning, her body was found wrapped in a blanket in the Los Palos Grandes building in Caracas, Venezuela. Image courtesy of my niece Gilda via WhatsApp.}

Heading for a fate like Haiti’s?

My final thought is a sombre one, as the underlying fear is that Venezuela will follow in Haiti’s footsteps: a country which, in the wake of the disaster, became trapped in an endless cycle of destruction and inefficient humanitarian aid. The tragedy in Venezuela is not the earthquake; it is “Chavismo” and the power structure that has cannibalised the institutions. As long as politics continues to block the flow of real aid and the return of legitimate leadership, nature will continue to lay bare the ruins of what was once a prosperous nation. The real disaster in Venezuela is not natural, it is political, and its epicentre lies in Miraflores. Sorry, but the Left is rubbish.