If you don't think charts tell you anything than this post isn't for you. Also, I'm not an expert and I don't even trade that much, so take what I'm about to say with a grain of salt.
The chart linked above is the US Dollar value chart of bitcoin from Bitstamp since 2012. It's been marked with red and green arrows for past events of what I'm about to describe and a yellow arrow for what's currently happening today/tomorrow.
People that like charts track moving averages. They track short term, mid term and long term moving averages. You can use multiple time periods, but the most popular seems to be the daily averages. Short term Moving averages are generally under 30 days. Mid term is often the 128 day moving average. Long term is often the 200 day moving average.
What's happening now is called the golden cross or a bullish crossover. I've marked previous ones in green. The short term moving average which has been trading below the long term moving average is crossing from under the long term moving average to trading above it (short goes from below to above the long). This is actually a fairly rare event. The combined sum of bullish and bearish crossovers (where the short term average goes from trading above to below the long term average, marked in red) have only happened 9 times since 2012 on the daily chart.
Back in 2012 you can see that it happened at the start of the graph and a strong bull market followed. The averages caught the decline after the top and when it did a bearish crossover price fell in early 2014. At the start of 2016 it gave a relatively short false signal and then signaled the bullish cross which was at the start of the next bull market. The bearish crossover occurred after the peak in 2018 which tracked this last crypto winter. The Bullish crossover happened at the lows and what followed was bitcoin going from 3 to 14k. The signal turned bearish and declined for several months. Today/tomorrow it appears to be on yet another bullish crossover and just the 9th crossover signal in 8 years.
These are ISH events (bullISH or bearISH) because they don't provide promises or guarantees of future events. This current reversal appears fueled by traders leveraging their holdings and taking long positions as opposed to new investment money coming in. Bitcoin is handy in that these differences are trackable.
Anyway, it could be a false signal, all this stuff could be meaningless, and there's a non-zero chance it's signalling the start of the next bull run. The halv(en)ing is less than 100 days away.
I'm reporting an event techincal analysts care about is happening now on the bitcoin chart, but purposefully not stating a prediction. Do you think it matters? Does past price action lend any information towards future price action? What do you think will happen?
