The media landscape is changing rapidly. This is something many are starting to grasp onto.
However, if we step back, this is something that started decades ago. It really is nothing new. The fragmentation basically began with cable television. This was then multiplied by the introduction of the Internet.
Web 3.0 is only going to take this further. When we look at the potential of what is taking place, it is easy to see how content creators are transitioning to media companies.
In this article we will delve into the numbers, history, and what we can expect from this medium.
Image generated by Ideogram
The 1980s Brought Television Fragmentation
This concept was really driven home by watching a video with John Schneider. He was the actor who played Bo Duke on the television series The Dukes of Hazzard. It was introduced in the late 1970s and ran well into the 80s.
What caught my attention was when he mention the number of viewers they got. He stated how some of the early shows (there were 5 purchased by the network) garnered 28 million viewers.
This was followed up by the comment that, if a show get a few million viewers today, they through a million dollar party.
I found this to be very interesting. Doing a prompt on Groq, this is what we see for scripted shows in 2023:
"This Is Us" (NBC) - 7.4 million viewers (Live + Same Day)
"The Walking Dead" (AMC) - 6.8 million viewers (Live + Same Day)
"The Good Doctor" (ABC) - 6.5 million viewers (Live + Same Day)
"NCIS" (CBS) - 6.4 million viewers (Live + Same Day)
"Grey's Anatomy" (ABC) - 6.3 million viewers (Live + Same Day)
This is a huge difference.
Cable Television Disruption
What could cause this?
The population in the United States was 225 million. Today it is somewhere around 350 million. This is a substantial jump.
What we saw was massive dilution of the viewing audience. In the period we are discussing, most homes did not have cable television. This means the choices were limited since most had 4-6 channels.
Cable brought with it the massive expansion of networks. It was not long before, by 2000, there were hundreds of channels. So while the population was growing, eyeballs were focused over a wider area.
This was a major hit to the broadcast networks or, more specifically, the companies that owned them. It was a short lived situation as, over the decades, these entities simply started to purchase other stations.
The attention flowed to more places yet the entities behind them consolidated down to a relative small number. This is an important point for later.
The Steroid Machine: The Internet
I have long said the Internet is nothing more than a giant copy machine. It is also a medium that puts everything on steroids.
When it comes to fragmentation of attention, this becomes obviously.
In the media world, it affected newspaper and record companies first. Video is a difficult media type from a technical angle. It requires bandwidth, storage, and camera. All of this was archaic in the mid 2000s.
That changed over the years. What this means is a platform like YouTube started to emerge as a viable alternative. While the quality of the content didn't match the studios, it was sufficient to give 10-15 minutes.
TikTok took it even further requiring only 60-90 seconds.
We are no longer discussing a few hundred channels. YouTube along has tens of thousands. Naturally, most do not get a great deal of attention. That said, when a channel gets 10 views on a 15 minute video, that is 2.5 hours. Again, eyeballs pulled from the traditional entities.
Web 3.0
We have covered this in great detail simply due to the fact the market is being disrupted as we speak.
Video content is the most powerful form of media. Web 3.0 can leverage this by taking the concept laid here even further.
Content creators will no longer be flocking to a single platform. Instead, they will be media companies themselves. This means operating in a manner much different than simply upload to YouTube.
For some, this might mean posting on different sites. Joe Rogan certainly is doing this. When it comes to Web 3.0, we are going to see the proliferation of content really explode over the next few years. Much of this could be due to the advancement of AI. We know the Hollywood studios are already enacting this.
Like most technologies, they are glitchy and expensive to start. However, give it a few generations and we see the advancement change things. Costs come down while quality/ease of use improves.
Ultimately, we are going to see this translate into millions. Consider all the options that will be available.
Which brings up the major question: how will people garner attention?
We know it is difficult enough on YouTube. That platform has hundreds of millions of visitors. What happens if we have a massive expansion in the areas where content is found?
Here is where the incentive programs enter. While the innovation is lacking at the moment, we have to seriously consider (and experiment with) new models. Those that are successful will find they garner the following.
Use All Tools
It is often difficult to see how things are going to unfold.
Many wonder how can these uncharted waters be navigated? It is a difficult question to answer.
One of the things that comes to mind is the willingness to utilize all tools. This is something that does not come natural to most. We tend to stick to what we know. This is why people along with industries get disrupted.
It is by moving outside the norm that we begin to realize the potential and how it is expanded with some of these technologies.
Mr. Beast or Pat McAfee would not have been possible 40 years ago. Instead, they would have been off selling insurance of something. There was one basic way into the media world. The latter was not only able to become successful, he forced himself onto traditional television.
With technological innovation comes opportunity. Disruption leads us to focus upon the losers, those that are aversely affected. There are also winners, those entities (individuals) that put the tools to use and end up succeeding.
Web 3.0 is going to mirror this. Who will win and what path is followed is not yet determined.
For this reason, anyone reading these words has an opportunity. It is only a matter of determining which direction one wants to go and pursuing that. Since all of this is so new, be willing to adapt along the way.
The studios are going to lose control. In the past they gobbled newer additions up. With this, the long tail is going to make that impossible. We are going to see fragmentation to such a degree due to incentivization that it is impossible to adapt.
This is all in keeping with the change from 40 years ago. The trend was started back then.