Hamster Kombat is that kid in class that everybody loves, not particularly for any reason. You know how people believe that if everyone uses a product, it will work wonders? Or how come we believe that expensive things are always going to be better than cheaper things? This is Hamster Kombat.
This project began without knowing how popular it would become, and just a few months later, it ammased over 30 million players. Although I agree that they have a smooth and seamless interface, they had plans to perfectly farm and monetize their community, which they accomplished admirably, amassing over one billion YouTube views in just six months after owning over 18 YouTube channels.
Because of the scope of the project, everyone believes the airdop has the potential to be good. However, after six months, they completed their snapshot and allocated points. Previously, they were on premarket on bybit and other exchanges, but after allocating airdop points and taking other parameters into account, the average airdop farmer on HK will earn $6 to $18 after six months.
Of course, I have been skeptical for a long time, because more players farming an airdop means fewer airdops. The project was widely adopted and will be listed on Binance and other exchanges; however, if they launch near their premarket price, only influencers will likely receive $50 to $100 and the average user $6 to $18.
Analysis & Launch Price
A lot of people believe they will launch at 9 or 10 cents, but I will explain why this is impossible. The supply of Bybit is currently assumed to be 10 billion in the premarket, but it is actually 100 billion. So, when the final conversion is completed, people will realize that bybit only assumed a supply of 10 billion, but at listing, this will be converted, automatically setting the token's price to one cent.
A market capitalization of $6.4 billion is not realistic, and if it were, this would be the only way to achieve a listing price of 9 to 10 cents. No Telegram app has ever accomplished this. Catizen was a paying game with only one billion total supplies, but it could not reach these numbers.
Many people continue to rely on Hamster to pull the rabbit out of the hat, and while we know they made a lot of money, they are only popular and not particularly well managed or planned.
So, after all of this analysis, the average user with, say, 2,000 tokens will likely receive only $20 for six months of farming. Remember that Hamster had no VC and all that. They have the numbers, which is why they have been listed on Binance.
Binance has been paying a lot of money in CZ's court cases, including his arrest and release. I'm not really saying they're broke, but they've lost a lot of money and they've been listing stuffs you wouldn't have expected them to. Hamster Kombat airdop is volume, and all that money would be a big payday for the CZ boys, so there is nothing particularly noteworthy about $HMSTR being listed on Binance.
Token Distribution
So, the HK team promised 64% of the airdop, but with the allocation that many people received, I doubt they distributed up to 60 billion tokens. I believe fewer than 50 million people qualified for airdop. Many people were disqualified, including those who cheated. We still have bots, Sybil, and others.
In reality, the token is thinly distributed, and there will be vesting. As a result, an average person with a 1,000 allocation would not have all of their tokens to sell on listing day.
This puts the figures at 3 to 6 dollars per person if they do not sell all of their tokens on the listing date.
In reality, this could be the most failed airdop project in history, due to unrealistic expectations. However, listing for more than 2 cents is still a realistic market cap, but I believe hamster would go above and beyond to make this happen.
This is an analysis, not financial advice; do your own research and avoid FUD.
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