It seems all the rage now with all the influencers giving their crypto predictions and what tokens are going to be hot or not in 2024. Therefore, I thought I would join in the fun and make a few predictions guesses as to what the crypto prices would be by the end of 2024 and then I can review this at the end of the year and see how far off or close I was.
My method is not scientific but I try to guess based on the upcoming Bitcoin Halving. There is for sure more at play than this, but I thought it would be a good basis for trying to make a guess.
The first guess would be for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has broken to just under $42k as I write this laying at $41892 on Binance. To help me with my guess, I will check the halving chart from Glassnode which shows the Bitcoin price 1 year after the halving.
However, I want to know the price performance around 8 months after the last halving, so I checked approximately here on 31 December which maybe is nearly 8 months.
The % price performance for each Epoch are and how that would effect the current price:
Epoch 2 - 756% - $316 704
Epoch 3 - 159% - $66 608
Epoch 4 - 474% - $198 568
Hopefully my numbers are right here, and this looks pretty bullish for Bitcoin next year!
Does this help me? If Bitcoin follows the trend from one of the previous epochs, then it could reach one of those prices. As the epoch 2 was quite some time ago, perhaps it makes sense to focus more on the last 2 epochs. This would mean a price between $66 608 and $198 568.
Therefore, my prediction guess would be in between these 2 numbers and I go with $131960 for the price 31 Dec 2024!
With Hive, it is a little more difficult as there isn't so much history as with Bitcoin. We can see with the chart that Hive started pumping around 10 months after the last halving. It is also important to remember the Hive hard fork was on March 20th 2020, so it was a fairly new chain back then too.
Therefore, I took the change in price from say Litecoin that should be similar to Hive and generally track the crypto market as a whole. In the last halving, 8 months after the price was up 185%.
If I apply that to Hive that is currently trading at $0,3621, we could see a price by the year end of $1,03! Therefore, I am predicting guessing that Hive would be $1,03 by the end of the year.
This might not be the best way to make some NGU price guesses, but let's see how it might actually land in 12 months time. Of course, the values are not guaranteed to go up because of the halving and maybe they might not go up at all this time. Therefore this guessing method is not really scientific and just for fun!
Bitcoin $131 960
Hive $1,03
Thanks for reading.
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