What Makes a Planned Event So Complex?

The complexity of an event could either originate from a series of intricate coincidences or a series of planned actions. The latter can be best explained through a fictional story. Here it goes...

A humanoid alien from outer space who knew English landed on the planet of Erthagona. He went to a newspaper stand and picked up a newspaper. On the title, it read "THE KINGDOM IS BOOMING NOW". Several people gathered around him in awe as he asked, "What does this mean - 'The Kingdom Is Booming NOW? Was there a problem before?". After a few moments of silence, a middle-aged man came out from the crowd and spoke with him. This is what he said.

"You are in a small territory called Ulsinka which used to be ruled by a king that managed the place for several decades. During his reign, he became very famous for developing a more powerful economic infrastructure for his kingdom compared to his predecessor. He was the first among many kings to create a system of contracts that allowed for other kingdoms to determine items of "equal value" for bartering. This reduced the possibility that all the kingdoms in the land would go to war for some random argument over the unfair valuation of products. He also produced some of the finest technologies in the land.

The king sadly perished after venturing through the forbidden mists of Khollo. The next king that took the throne was not so good as his predecessor. He favored chaos rather than country; partying rather than people; and jostling rather than justice. For years, the people expressed their dissatisfaction by posting open letters to their local town councils, informing them about the eventual destruction of the kingdom if the king was not replaced soon.

Over time, the predictions of the many people were proven to be correct and the economy of the kingdom began to fall at a rapid pace. Soon, a plethora of problems began to arise such as decreasing distribution of welfare, widespread poverty, decreasing standard of education, increase in crime, and a drastic reduction in the industrial production of the kingdom - which led to large trading deficits with other kingdoms. The mounting challenges were exacerbated by the king's abusive attitude towards the population.

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Photo by Thijs van der Weide from Pexels

Just before the people of the kingdom were about to prepare a massive coup to dethrone the king, the advisors of the king decided to contact the king's closest business connections to change the king's ways. The plan of the advisors worked - in the wrongest way possible. The king decided to introduce sweeping reforms aimed at oppressing small shops and taxing them with random taxes which were provided to the wealthy class. The wealthy used these taxes as leverage to introduce small businesses in other kingdoms. These "businesses" had various purposes. One of them was to secretly introduce diseases.

One winter morning, a wealthy citizen of Ulsinka ordered one of his businesses in a rival kingdom (called Crindala) to "accidentally" release a powerful virus on the population. Within a few days, millions of people were passing away from an unknown disease that could not be treated by the doctors in the Crindala. The news of this tragedy quickly spread amongst the other kingdoms and their kings began to enact strict travel and safety measures to prevent the spread of this deadly disease. Several months later, things took a strange turn.

An economist from the kingdom of Crindala noticed that each of the countries that were labeled as enemies of the kingdom of Ulsinka had the highest incidence of virus cases. Any individual who believed that the virus was fake suddenly became infected with the virus. All countries that supported Ulsinka did not get the virus. The conspiracy theories, speculations, and fear began to circulate throughout the public as kingdoms began to enforce a more closed society. Economies were paused; the transport of goods was halted; supply chain logistics were negatively impacted, and the threat of a trade war was not too far away.

A few months later, the king of Ulsinka was the last to announce restrictive measures to prevent the spread of the virus. However, many people had complained that the restrictions were very lassez faire and no real effort was made to defend Ulsinka against the "virus". While confusion ruled the land, the king of Ulsinka consulted with his advisors on how to resolve the current crisis. The advisors said that the economy of Ulsinka had been dragged down so low that it was nearly impossible to fix the economy in one day. However, there was one solution that could provide a temporary fix.

The king had to sign a series of decrees that would restructure the economy to promote industrial development and increase the number of powerful businesses in Ulsinka. These businesses would be designed to leech onto the businesses of their closest ally kingdoms for the sole purpose of taking their resources, people, money, and food. In the meantime, chaos and confusion had to be maintained. So, a series of documents were revealed to the public at a specific interval which was designed to maintain the fear, uncertainty, and doubt surrounding the "virus" - which was intentionally spread by secret scientific organizations. Once enough resources had been leeched from other kingdoms, the king would sell these resources at a high price; reinvest the profits into the economy, and take the rest for himself (and a few of his close wealthy friends).

The king agreed to the plan put forth by his advisors which turned out to work perfectly - except for a few rough patches where Ulsinkas allies and enemies began to openly criticize and occasionally sanction his kingdom. Every time a country decided to punish Ulsinka for its unfair business practices, the king had a logbook. In this logbook, he recorded what kingdoms he would invade as soon as his kingdom's economy was back on its feet."

"And that brings us to the latest newspaper post", said the middle-aged man.

"Indeed. There was a lot of background information I was missing. Thanks for filling me in on the details", replied the alien.

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