Greetings friends!

India has been one of the leading agricultural country in the world. It is estimated that more than 50% India population is depends on agriculture or agriculture related businesses. India spends roughly around 2-3% of its GDP for agriculture sector. As per the data of the union budget India's agriculture department received 1250.36 billion INR in 2023-24 (IUSD=84 INR) which is 5% more than the revised estimates for the financial year 2022-23. For the F.Y. 2024-25 it was increased to 1324.70 crore INR.

In 1950-51 agriculture sector’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 54% which decreased to 15.4% in 2015-16 and services sector growth has increased from 30% to 53% between these periods. Reduction of agriculture sector's contribution in comparison to service sector is a good thing as it demonstrates a significant rise in other economic activities but it is also a matter of concern as even today a significant population work in the agriculture which indicates that with reduction contribution in the GDP, people engaged in agriculture are earning very low and their income is reducing continuously.

Despite of a huge investment on agriculture and support to the farmers, agriculture growth rate in India has been erratic. It had been very volatile. As it was 5.8% in 2005-06 while dropped to 0.4% in 2009-10 and there was a negative growth of -0.2% in 2014-15. It was 4.7% in 2022-23 and dropped again to to 1.4% in 2023-24. This shows the vulnerability of the agriculture sector in India and enough to say that the future of the people engaged in agriculture is not very promising.

In 2022 India registered a big surge in its wheat export in 2022 amid Russia Ukraine crises when it exported 7 million tonnes of wheat, a 250% higher than the previous year. Even the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi claimed that India can feed whole world. But, soon India came to 180 degree turn. It put ban on export of wheat. India is the second largest producer of rice but India is not the exporter of rice as rice produced here is not enough for meeting the demand of its huge population.

India is importing pulses which are the main source of protein for most of the Indian and edible oils. India's Pulses imports in 2023-24 was worth USD 3.74 billion that was almost double of the previous year's imports. India imports refined soy and palm oils from other countries. India imported edible oils worth 19 billion USD in 2021-22. It is also important to mention that India also imports crude oils from other countries which changes USD/INR prices unfavourable for INR. Hence, imports further reduces the value of Indian currency.

India's main problem is it's too much population. According to various estimates India's population is more than 1.5 billion now which is almost 20 percent of the total world population. For this huge population lot of houses, infrastructures etc. needs to be built. It has increased the demand of the land exponentially. This is reducing the agriculture land and also Indian farmers are using too much chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This has made agriculture very costly and also destroying the fertility of the land. So, the future of the Indian agriculture is in danger. There should be a clear policy for meeting the future demand and the state of the agriculture should improve, otherwise there will be a very disastrous time for over populated country.

For this post, I have used data from the various websites of government and non-government organisations.

Thanks.