Which variants are on the rise in the US?

image.png

https://covid19dashboard.regeneron.com/

While the the B.1.351 variant has yet to break 1%, there are two other variants currently on the rise in the US, with the important caveat that they are only on the rise in a relative sense. That is, covid is on the decline, but some variants are declining faster than others. So a greater percentage of the smaller number of infections that do happen are from these variants.

Those two are P.1 (Brazil) and B.1.617.2 (India). The P.1 variant is currently 12% of the cases in the US, and more than a third of cases in Illinois. In terms of avoiding immunity from older variants in laboratory tests, P.1 is worse than B.1.1.7, but not as bad as B.1.351.

In actual tests of vaccine efficacy, AZ had about 64% efficacy in Brazil. Sinovac, which is a weak vaccine in general, had 50% efficacy in one study and 42% in another in Brazil. The J&J vaccine was 68% effective in Brazil, as compared to 72% in the US. So I don't think you need to worry that your vaccine will be dramatically less effective against P.1. But it's worth keeping an eye on it.

The B.1.617.2 (India) variant is increasing, but it's only at 5% in the US. Interestingly, it's now the majority variant in the UK (65%), which suggests that vaccination might be selecting for it. Again, that doesn't mean that the vaccines are not working against it at all, just that they work better against B.1.1.7. In England, the Pfizer vaccine tested at 88% effective against the B.1.617.2 variant, as opposed to 93% against B.1.1.7, so that fits. They also found that AZ was similarly less effective. So again, this isn't cause for panic, but it's also something to watch over time.

H2
H3
H4
3 columns
2 columns
1 column
Join the conversation now