Hi all, Crypto Sludge here.
With traditional markets continue to tumble down, BTC as it seems for now shares their destiny. I saw a bounce attempt earlier today but for now it wasn't to successful as the sell pressure it still pretty strong.
I am seeing the panic i was missing earlier as i spoke in one of my previous posts BTC - Where is the bottom? The funny thing is that i am getting a lot more of this panic from the traditional markets, and only a little more for BTC.
And now for some first casualties for traditional markets volatility :
RIP XIV for those unfamiliar , XIV was a synthetic derivative of the VIX (fear index) that was created by Credit-Suisse bank. Yesterday with VIX hitting 50, the XIV index dropped from $108.36 on Feb 2nd to 4.22$ on Feb 5th and today Credit-suisse notified they are terminating it, effectively wiping out 96% of the investment for whoever held it, with no chance to hodl for better times :)
And they laughed at crypto...
Unfortunately i still don't have any strong predictions for BTC, i really think we are in uncharted territory here, and trying to use micro TA for macro events seem bit wrong to me, especially since we never seen BTC behave in a macro market of this kind.
What i am seeing, is that BTC is oversold in pretty much every metric i can think off, however it's one of those metrics that it can either reverse or just continue to drop (just like it continued to rise when it was overbought since pretty much October).
We might get a short consolidation period @ the 6k-7k area while traditional markets figure out what they are doing. If we do get a consolidation period, Alts will party a bit, but i wouldn't go back into the market right now until i see a clear confirmation. Drops and corrections is how a bear markets are born....
As i said before , bigger forces at play now, BTC is just a drop in the bucket compared to size of the traditional markets, it will take more time until BTC will be ready to act as a hedge for traditional market volatility - it's not ready yet, but i am sure more and more people are looking at this option, i know lots of super talented and smart people working on the tech, and on the tech front, BTC have never been stronger, the mempool is empty, even coinbase rolling out segwit :)
Please let me know what you think of the situation and my analysis.
Stay Strong.
Trade ON!
Crypto Sludge
