Concerning your 12 statements, I agree to the most, but concerning

1. Kiev may be surrounded (but not encircled?) according to its mayor. But the mayor has a strong incentive to ask the west for help. So a big question mark behind that statement.
2. Yes, but how relevant is that? Putin threatening with nuclear attacks is a sign of weakness as well.
3. Yes, and the Russians negotiate with Zelensky.
4. Yes, these sanctions are damaging to Europe, but they destroy Russia.

"All this adds up to the fact that Ukraine has lost and Russia has won."

• Overall, these points are not nearly enough for that conclusion. Russia has conquered a small percentage of Ukraine. Ukraine is a big country with over 40 million people. Conquering the whole country will take many months (at least), and the slower Russia's advance, the more time there is for support from the west. And even if Russia would conquer Ukraine, it won't be able to hold it for a long time.

"Not something you would do if the Ukranian military was winning."

• Ukraine alone can not win. They can gain time - time needed for new and better equipment to arrive, and for the sanctions to increase pressure on the Russian regime.