If you are interested in extremely risky, borderline degenerate bets with huge payouts I have a few ideas....
Thesis 1: The amount of time between the creation of the first general purpose labor robot which can build robot factories, and the existence of a billion worker robots, is very short.
Recursive self assembly, where we build a machine that can build itself, is not far off, in my opinion. You just need a humanoid robot.
Slowly each human in the supply and manufacturing chain which feeds the materials into the robot factory will be replaced by the humanoid robots this factory produces. Each new job the robots can do is just a software upgrade.
It will be like bootstrapping a compiler. Eventually every job in the entire supply chain feeding the robot factory will be performed by the robots that are being output from the factory.
At this point the cost of labor starts to approach the material cost of the components of the robot, and the energy required to run them. No other costs, they build themselves after all...
So what's the degen bet to make then?
I think some time in the next 10 years there is going to be a historic squeeze on metals/mining and energy as people scramble to secure the resources needed to build a billion robots.
What's the play?
Call options, 2 years out, 50%+ out of the money on all the biggest ore and energy prospect owners. Uranium included.
The degen part is to just keep buying the 2 year expirys, way out of the money.
Or the entire system buckles and humanoid robots are banned because turns out people need jobs to pay for stuff.
