Bitcoin, daily chart, Binance
About 2 weeks ago I formulated a prognosis of 2 weeks of sideways calm and quiet (https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@youp/prognosis-almost-2-weeks-of-sideways-corrective-calm). In the end we got that, although not exactly as I expected, as we first moved up through resistance in order to fall back again; as if there was no resistance worth mentioning at the 7800$ level.
Well, we have had our 2 weeks of more or less sideways calm. Now all is building up for more upward movement. As you can see in the above chart, it's quite possibe that we've finished a five wave impulse up from the bottom at 5750$ and a wave 2 correction to the previous wave 4. In addition, the indicators have retraced nicely to oversold levels, especially the Stochastic RSI (see next chart).
Bitcoin, daily chart, Bitfinex
Now, there are several possibilies. If the impulse up from the bottom has finished, we must expect at least another five wave impulse up towards approximately 10k$. Then we may have completed at least a corrective pattern (a zigzag) and might start moving down again. This is the most bearish scenario.
Alternatively, from the current wave II low, we can have a larger wave III five wave up, as part of a larger impulse. In that case we are looking at a more bullish scenario, with possibly new tops to be made.
However, it can also be that the first impulse I has not yet finished and the current correction is just a wave 4 in that larger impulse I. In that case we must expect wave 5 to finish at ca 9000$ (wave 5 is usually 61.8% of the move identified by the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3). Should this turn out to be true, then we can expect a wave II back to 7800$ followed by another five wave to ca 11k$.
In short, all scenario's are pointing up. The way in which we go up will determine whether we are in a larger correction (which is still possible), or whether we have started a new bullmarket with new highs to be expected.
I have closed my short hedges in the recent correction and am currently very long.
