I always have been the value of investment, ignore the price to buy, but these rules I broke last night! I was almost all in EOS, BTC, YOYOW, BTS.
It was a nightmare for most of people yesterday, everybody watching the digital assets instantly decrease half, the mood must be very depressed. But I am very happy.
ON Dec 9 ,Bitcoin was over $1300 when I bought a little more than $15000 , I have not bought cryptocurrency for two weeks .Bitcoin prices have been rising for the past two weeks. In fact, my mood is not that good at all. I've always felt I should call it back, but I did not expect it so fast.
After reading the articles of the cat today, I feel that this time adjustment is actually expected. Based on the following:
1, The important reason for the Bitcoin price increase is the establishment of the compliance futures market in the United States. Since the compliance futures market does not make physical delivery, the price trend can only depend on the real market trend and is used to controlling the market Of the futures giants in order to gain control of the price of the spot market, all the way crazy market, led to the bitcoin spot prices all the way up. When the market opens, and the temptation to attract more success after the layout of a large number of empty single, in the spot market crazy thrown spot, burst long positions, get huge profits, is a reasonable means of operation.
2, bitcoin rose from $6000 to nearly $20000 , there is almost no decent callback, this round of epic-level rise, accumulated a huge amount of chips, need a plunge to make some people take profits, The trend of cattle, but also to raise the average cost of the market, in order to step by step consolidation and elevation.
3, The currency thief on an exchange was the trigger for a plunge. However, the fact that this third-rate exchange rate has had a limited impact on the market has obviously caused a lot of "deliberate" dissemination which finally led to panic.
4, many countries are unable to report on the financial statistics of assets, some institutional investors need to withdraw the legal currency positions for the year-end statements, to make the performance look good, or not affect the team year-end reward.
The above four articles are enough to show that this plunge is the "just need" for the entire market. The total come, the plunge came so well deserved.
Now that these logic is not obviously useful , the key is how the market after the move, this is our most valuable analysis. Even if the forecast is a bit tricky in the short term, the problems of the cats will make people feel a little bit about the future.
Take bitcoin as an example. Consider the following basic questions:
1,What is the source of bitcoin's value?
2, the overall trend of bitcoin is growing or abating?
3, how the compliance futures exchange and the upcoming ETF on the trend ?
4,Does Bitcoin have the foundation of a long bear market?
5, the institutional investors to calculate the return on investment income legal currency positions there is no place for higher rates of return?
I believe everyone will have their own answers to the above questions, so I will not explain them one after another. In the past, we all grew up and I believe my readers should have better thinking skills.
In the blockchain investment this way I am very grateful to the sharing of the cats, took me through the early confusion, learned to critical thinking.
Thank you, cat and xiaolai !
我从来都是价值投资，很少盯盘。向来都是无视价格定期买入，但这些规则昨天晚上我破了！我盯了一晚上的盘，用了一个月资金的买入了EOS、BTC、YOYOW、BTS，竟然一大早起来就看行情。
昨天的暴跌对于大部分来说都是一场噩梦，眼睁睁看着自己的数字资产瞬间蒸发一半，心情一定非常郁闷。但我竟然非常高兴，终于等来了这场调整。
12月9日比特币在9万多时我买了一点，超过10万后这两个星期我一直没有买进，只是做了资产的配置调整。这两个星期比特币价格一直上涨，其实我的心情一点都不好，一直觉着应该要回调了，但没有想到这么快。
今天看了老猫的文章后，觉着这个时间调整其实是预料之中的事情。依据如下：
1、本次比特币价格上涨的重要原因是美国的合规性期货市场的建立，由于合规性期货市场并不进行实物交割，其价格走势只能依赖于实盘走势，习惯于控制市场的期货巨头们为了获得对现货市场的价格控制权，一路疯狂建仓，才导致了比特币现货价格的一路上涨。当市场开启，并且成功的诱多之后，布局大量的空单，在现货市场上疯狂抛出现货，爆多头的仓位，获得暴利，是合理操作手段。
2、比特币从 6000 美元上涨到将近 20000 美元，几乎没有什么像样的回调，这一轮史诗级的上涨，积累了巨量的获利筹码，需要一场暴跌来让一些人获利离场，再牛的走势，也要提升市场平均成本，才能一步步的整固抬高。
3、某交易所被盗币是引发暴跌的导火索，但事实上这个三流交易所被盗币对市场原本影响有限，明显被很多『刻意』的传播最终导致了恐慌。
4、很多国家的财务报告是无法统计数字资产的，一部分机构投资者需要抽回法币头寸做年终报表，让业绩变得好看，要不影响团队年终奖励。
以上 4 条已经足够说明本次暴跌是整个市场的『刚需』，哪有只涨不跌的市场？该来的总要来的，本次暴跌来得如此理所应当。
现在说这些逻辑显然有点事后诸葛的感觉，关键是之后市场走向怎样，这才是对我们最有价值的分析了。即使预测短期有点不靠谱，但老猫的这几个问题，可以让大家琢磨出一点点未来的感觉。
以比特币为例，请思考以下几个基本问题：
1、比特币的价值来源是什么？
2、比特币整体的趋势的是在增长还是在消减？
3、合规期货交易所和即将上线的 ETF 对这种趋势的影响如何？
4、比特币是否具备一个漫长的熊市的基础？
5、机构投资者计算完投资收益的法币头寸还有没有更高回报率的去处？
我相信大家对上面的问题会有自己的答案，所以不再一一解读，在过去的时间里，我们都在一路成长，我相信我的读者也应该有更好的思考能力。
在区块链投资这条路上非常感谢老猫的分享，带我走过了初期的迷茫，学会了独立思考和独立判断。
谢谢老猫，也谢谢笑来！
