Hey Bud! Good to hear from you. Wow...you've gone all in on that bearish scenario. We've discussed most (not all) of the points you made in prior videos. The only ABC that's possible is on log scale. It's possible on a large, macro level...but there's about 5 other counts that are also possible. Personally, I don't believe any of them are productive to discuss. I've seen the most brilliant elliot traders get humbled very quickly in this market.
It's great to look at all possibilities, but you seem to be ignoring every bullish indication we've seen over the last 6 months. Again...we may see a $4K bitcoin...even lower. That's possible. But, be very careful saying anything with so much certainly, especially when there are so many counter arguments which we've discussed over the last few months.
Putting my bias aside, some of the best analysts in the world believe the bottom is in for very good reason. They may be wrong, but that's the beauty of being a trader. You make money regardless of direction, just so long as it's volatile.
As far as psychology not being a factor...I'm afraid I'd STRONGLY disagree. Fear a greed are what drive this market. Yes bots are a big factor. But you may misunderstand how bots operate. Most are reactionary. They scalp. They're also all programmed differently and constantly updated for the owners personal bias...at least many are. Some aren't...but those are in the minority.
Bottom line, psychology plays a HUGE role in trading...even with today's bots. In fact, many have argued even more so. If market makers and/or whales can find the trend in the majority of bots, they can drive the market much easier one way or another...which can quickly cause panic (or greed) programming...which reverses the whole thing.
Anyway...you do what you feel is right. My macro bias remains bullish. Even though we may see further down side over the coming month, I believe the bottom is in. That said, I'll change that bias in a heartbeat if/when appropriate. As I said, I'm not married to any one position. As long as the market moves (up or down), I'm happy. Volatility is where the money is made.
All the best my friend 😉