Dear Steemians, welcome to Wave Analysis.
I like to share my wave analysis for BTCUSD in 1M, 1W, 1D and 4H timeframes.
As you can see, I'm very optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. But, unlike the majority of cryptocurrency traders/investors, I believe that the journey of Bitcoin to the moon won't be started in short time. If you look at the monthly chart below, down move after all-time high seems to be the first impulse inside of the corrective structure. The reason for this thought is the time relation between impulses and their corrections in wave theory. Based on this concept the completion of a corrective structure shouldn't take only 2 months after 4 years impulse (I ignore everything before 2013 because there wasn't any real trading market). Therefore it should still be in the 2nd wave and in my opinion, it will keep being in it next 1 - 2 years.
It looks like a weekly corrective structure (B wave) is in the making as an internal wave of 2nd. I believe that the first drop (A wave) ends most likely, based on the divergence in 4H. Now, I'm waiting for a slowly growing up and probably massy moves. Intraday volatility can be high, but these fluctuations won't create an impulsive structure.
As you can see, I draw 5 wave structure inside of (a) wave. This WXYXZ impulsive move can be leading diagonal or 3 wave structure as well. Because of it is still at the very early stage of the current wave, making a forecast is impossible and unnecessary. The direction, on the other hand, is important, and it will be up.
As I mentioned before, there is a divergence between impulses during the first drop. For this reason, I don't think Bitcoin will fall below 5900 for now. Let's see what we have in this timeframe:
a) There is no divergence between W and Y (blue labels) in the down move. So, I'm expecting one more drop (Z wave) after it makes a correction in the same magnitude with the first X. But X and Z waves are optional, we have 3 wave structure so far, and 3 waves make a completed structure.
b) Y wave reached 1.618 extension level of W and if it starts making the same size X from that deep, it will retrace to 0.618 of Y. Finally, if it drops one more time for Z wave, we will have nice fib confluences for targeting at 1.118 + 0.786 and 1.272 + 0.886.
c) I have two reservations. If you look at the starting formations of previous impulses, you can see that it makes usually very fast moves in the first place. But current small up move looks like pretty flat and it can be a correction. So, there is a possibility for one more down move. But, even if it goes down one more time, I believe it will be very short drop. Probably it will break the bottom at 7682 then reverse.
I appreciate that if you leave a comment and let me know what do you think about this analysis. Also, please don't forget to upvote if you liked this post and follow me for more.
Until next time, trade with care.
Have a nice weekend.
Don't invest money than you can afford to lose. Trading carries a high degree of risk. Everything here is my personal opinion, should not be considered as trade calls.
