이 글은 마이크로소프트웨어(www.imaso.co.kr)에 올라가는 글입니다.
영국 글로벌 금융 서비스 기업 바클레이즈(Barclays Plc)의 애널리스트는 비트코인이 전염병 확산과 유사하다고 밝혔습니다. 전염병이 그렇듯 확산의 시기가 지나면 면역력이 생기듯 지난해 2만달러를 찍었을 때가 최고점이 이라고 분석했습니다. 비트코인 투자의 버블이 꺼졌다는 의미라고 해석됩니다.
ps. 다시 2만달러 시대 정말 안오나요? 진짜요?
[Like flu season, the 'infectious' spread of bitcoin could be over, Barclays says![flu.jpg]
(https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/10/like-flu-season-the-infectious-spread-of-bitcoin-could-be-over-barclays-says.html)
In order to value bitcoin and predict future prices, analysts at Barclays came up with a model that likens it to an infectious disease. Like flu season, the mania around cryptocurrency and subsequent price spikes could be coming to an end.
"Like infection, transmission – especially to those with 'fear of missing out' – is by word-of-month, via blogs, news reports and personal anecdotes," Barclays analyst Joseph Abate wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. "However, once full adoption is approached, the price decline is sustained and rapid."
Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50 percent in 2018, trading near $6,742 as of 8:48 a.m. ET after starting this year above $14,000, according to data from CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency rose more than 1,300 percent last year, reaching a peak near $20,000 in December.
[Why Bitcoin Behaves Like the Flu]
(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-10/bitcoin-is-a-disease-in-barclays-model-that-says-prices-peaked)
Is the rise of Bitcoin analogous to the spread of an infectious disease?
Analysts at Barclays Plc saw enough similarities to develop a pricing model for the cryptocurrency that takes its cues from the world of epidemiology. Their diagnosis: Bitcoin has probably peaked.
The Barclays model divides the pool of potential Bitcoin investors into three groups: susceptible, infected and immune. It assumes that as prices rise, “infections” spread by word-of-mouth (nobody likes missing out when their friends and colleagues are getting rich). Barclays analysts led by Joseph Abate in New York explained the rest in a note to clients on Tuesday:
“As more of the population become asset holders, the share of the population available to become new buyers -- the potential ‘host’ population -- falls, while the share of the population that are potential sellers (‘recoveries’) increases. Eventually, this leads to a plateauing of prices, and progressively, as random shocks to the larger supply population push up the ratio of sellers to buyers, prices begin to fall. That induces speculative selling pressure as price declines are projected forward exponentially.”