Hey guys, welcome! This is Val Campbell, Today for my Friday Morning Blog, we are talking about looking ahead to 2030 and what will happen to our currency.
I’ve really taken this and the majority of what I’m going to talk about today from the recent book by Mauro Guillén called 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything. I’d really recommend you read it if you want to know what’s going on with trends and where some of them are headed. It covers eight chapters talking about various trends.
I kind of took the smorgasbord approach with this book. I read the whole book, all eight chapters but I focused on four of them that were most important to me and what I wanted to learn. One of them, which I want to share about today, is Chapter Eight, titled More Currencies Than Countries, which is interesting: Printing Your Own Money, the Blockchain, and the End of Modern Banking. What it really did for me was help me understand and I think a lot of us have questions again, if you're paying attention to what’s happening on the economic horizon in business.
You know, Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, they’re kind of buzzwords now, but people are talking about them. You’ve got companies like Tesla with Elon Musk, MicroStrategy with Michael Saylor, guys like Robert Kiyosaki talking about it, Jim Cramer, even Mark Cuban. You’re going, What’s going on? Why are these guys getting involved? Why are they putting billions of dollars into this? His Chapter Eight really just cements that there’s a trend taking place out there. Again, if you can get ahead of a trend which I think we still can, you can benefit or potentially profit from it instead of it passing you by and you scratching your head, wondering, What happened?
Hopefully, this message will spur you on to do your research. Again, I’m not a financial planner or analyst by any means, so none of this is financial advice. I’m just providing some background on the trend here.
He talks about how most people alive today, my first point. grew up in a world where each country had distinct symbols of sovereignty: one flag, one leader, and one currency. Well, he’s suggesting that by 2030, some of the most important currencies in the world will not be issued by governments but by companies and even computers. So, what’s going to happen to our currencies? We’re going to have governments and computers issuing them.
Now, I don’t think he suggests people consider this heresy today. Well, I think you’d have to be blind or have your head in the sand if you’re not paying attention to anything on the economic horizon to say that. Guys, we have a trend taking place before us right now. There are some big players, and we’re going to see more institutional players moving into this market in the coming months—and there’s a reason why they’re doing that.
Point number two: Basically, 150 years ago or so, quick history lesson, governments decided to establish national currencies. We can debate the pros and cons of that. I don’t think it was a good thing, the printing and circulation of money. Our Federal Reserve came into place in 1913. I do not think that was a good thing for a number of reasons (I won’t get into it), but it really messed with the money supply, inflation, all of that.
But by 2030, he suggests those national currency monopolies that we have right now will be eroded. They won’t go away, but they’ll be eroded just as past monopolies in, say, the airline, electricity, and telecommunications industries were. National currencies will still predominate, but digital alternatives will be available as well. Well, guess what? We’re seeing that right now. There are a lot of digital alternatives Bitcoin being the number one right now.
But, you know, Mark Cuban recently I watched a video where he talked about cryptocurrency and tokenization. All of that is really kind of like the early years of the internet. These tokens are going to share the stage, but you’ve got to grasp how money works beyond what I’m going to talk about today, so I’m not going to get into that.
He suggests that anyone can print money, I’m not suggesting you go out and start counterfeiting money but the reason is that if people trust it as a form of payment, you’re okay. If there’s trust behind it and it’s convenient to use, that’s how we get into printing currencies. It’s much easier to use than, you know, gold coins, etc.
But alternate forms of money, he suggests, can also be used as an investment vehicle, meaning people might assume the money appreciates in value over time. But as with national currencies, any money can be affected by the laws of supply and demand. Again, this is all being a central banking, I think it’s really very negative, the banking cartel system. But an excess of supply depreciates its worth and reduces people’s willingness to use it, which I will suggest is why people are moving into high-quality assets like cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.
A recent article in The Wall Street Journal in February—just a couple of months ago said that since February 2020 (just a little about 5 year ago), the M2 money supply has increased 26%. Guys, that’s the largest one-year jump since 1943. That’s huge. They’ve printed more money than we ever have in about 70 years. Guys, that means we’ve lost 26% of our purchasing power 26% of the value of a dollar in just a year. That’s what inflation is. I’m going to get back and cover that here in a minute.
But in contrast and this is interesting too China’s money supply growth exploded between 2009 and 2010, averaging 23% a year. So, guess what? Their currency lost 23% of its value, right? They’ve got a strong economy, but their inflation jumped from like 1.8% in 2009 to 6.5% in July 2011. Money matters, and that’s why I think we’re seeing I don’t think it’s so much speculative (the GameStop thing certainly was), but Bitcoin there’s a very good reason why smart guys like Elon Musk and Michael Saylor watch their videos, watch Michael Saylor guys, very smart. Why are they moving into Bitcoin? Why are they putting hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars into it? Because their money supply is being eroded, guys.
Point number four: The world still finds itself relying on the U.S. dollar internationally as the most important means of payment, unit of account, and reserve currency. So, my question would be: What happens if our currency collapses or gets to a point where people around the world don’t trust the U.S. currency anymore? That’s a great question—one I think we need to be asking.
45% of foreign exchange turnover and global payments use the dollar. And when it comes to trade, more than 80% is invoiced in U.S. dollars. What happens if our currency loses favor out there? It could. The supremacy of the greenback in international finance and trade, he suggests, will be called into question as we approach 2030. And I wonder why? Look at what we’re doing. The printing presses are being cranked by the Fed. We’re flooding the markets with dollars. The dollar is losing its value.
Emerging markets already account for more than half the global economy that’s one of his chapters (one of the chapters I read; you should read it) But things are changing on the global scale. We need to be aware of them.
Fifth point here: Milton Friedman once said that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it can be produced only by a rapid increase in the quantity of money relative to output. Well, I just told you that the Fed’s increased the money supply by 26% since February 2020. Guys, that means inflation. When you inflate the money supply, inflation is not CPI. Inflation is when you inflate the money supply, and that devalues the currency. We’ve lost 26% of the value of our currency.
And he was correct in arguing that inflation, in this regard, is taxation without representation And that’s why we’re seeing people and companies and we’re going to see more move into Bitcoin, because it’s really the only high-quality asset out there that is appreciating in value.
Some 200% over the last decade. Our money supply is inflating by 26%, and people like Michael Saylor suggest that it could inflate, 12 to 15% over the next several years. That means you’re losing that much more every year. How much? At what point do you say, Hey, my currency is losing value, people are losing trust? And again, that’s why people are moving into Bitcoin.
So, simple lesson in economics, GUYS, one the media is not talking about, and the government certainly isn’t talking about is that inflation in supply (and I’ll say bunk on CNBC’s sham piece that that may not cause inflation that’s absolute baloney) is pure and simple. When the money supply increases, it devalues your currency. We have to understand that. If we don’t, you’re going to be playing a shell game that you’re going to lose.
And that’s kind of where a lot of these smart people are moving into Bitcoin.
As we approach 2030, point SIX, technology seems to be offering new ways of thinking about money. And the government even I’ll share this I sat in on a Barron’s Live here a couple of months ago, and there is talk. there’s a move to modernize currency. The Federal Reserve, the Fed, is actively evaluating a central bank digital currency. And guys, our Congress has interest in moving to a digital currency as well. And you have to ask, Why?
So, what’s happening out there? I’m going to give you my elevator points here:
Going to Michael Saylor: The first decade, Bitcoin averaged about 200% per year increase. Where are you going to get that out in the market if your money supply is going down by, you know, 26% or 12–15%? How are you going to cover that? And then right now, where it looks like we’re at about a 400–500% increase?
So, that’s my elevator pitch for Bitcoin. And I think we need to realize too one of the final points is just: Will tokens kill banking? Again, looking ahead in other industries, two banks are under threat because of blockchain technologies. So, I suggest, if you don’t understand blockchain, read about it, get an understanding of it but bankers’ jobs can be robotized.
We also have the influx or entrance of AI into all of this. There’s going to be a lot of things that are automated that weren’t before. That’s going to take away jobs. And banking can occur in the future with or without banks and bankers. He says, What if that happens? Big trends out there.
So, the impact of blockchains on the labor market, he says, will be profound as well as the entrance of robotics because it changes the rules of the game. And guys, that’s where we’re at today.
So, I hope this message was helpful. I hope it gave you some insight on what’s happening, again, just looking ahead to 2030, what’s going to happen to our currency. I think we, as leaders, need to be aware of these and understand what’s happening so we can hopefully take advantage of them, maybe profit from them. Again, I’m not a financial advisor, so I’m not giving financial advice here. But again, I hope
I thank you for tuning in. Again, please hit the upvote button if this message was valuable. I’d like to get more. Also, if you’d like to comment, respond, I’d love to get some input on this message, what you thought about it. And again, have an awesome Friday. Thanks for tuning in. Bye!
