BTC was back above $10K for the first time since October 2019. More importantly, it is also back over the 200-day MA. That’s notable because, as Tom Lee of Fundstrat put it earlier this week, anytime BTC has broken the 200-day MA, it’s gone on to record an average 197% gain over six months.
We’re up over 40% since the start of the year, meaning if there is anything like a 197% gain on the cards, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Of course, it’s impossible to deny the connection between Bitcoin’s strength and that of traditional markets like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. The stellar performance of those markets seems to be adding fuel to the fire in crypto, but what’s really going on behind these strong markets during a time of turbulence?
Western markets, particularly those in the US, are experiencing strong rallies since the Coronavirus made itself truly known in China. One would expect the opposite effect — that disruptions to the usual flow of capital, so tied in with China, would fuel major problems for globalized businesses worldwide.
That’s true, but it is only a fraction of the picture. Many see this moment as a turning point in the global balance of supply chain logistics. As businesses have to rely so strongly on China for nearly every step in the supply chain, the disruption caused by the current pandemic has shown businesses the dangers of keeping all their eggs in one basket.
It’s prompted many businesses to consider — and put into practice — moving jobs back to the businesses’ country of origin.
However, the initial euphoria being experienced in markets may give way at any moment to the true economic reality being painted by the pandemic and effective closure of China, the world’s #2 GDP economy. Bulls may be pushing markets higher now knowing full well that a China-led global recession may be in the cards.
Be that as it may, Bitcoin is tagging along for the fun.
This leads us back to the million-dollar question — is BTC a safe-haven asset? We view the current scenario as one testing the mettle of that belief. Should Bitcoin continue prospering even as global pandemonium increases, then we’ll have to side with yes as an answer.
Again, BTC hasn’t had to face a true recession or widespread market downturn on the order of the dot-com crash in 2000. So, as the volume on havoc turns up, keep watching to see how Bitcoin reacts, especially with the halving at hand and the reality of digital gold coming closer to hand.
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