I decided to start posting again after a bit of a hiatus. Life happens sometimes. Anyway, it has been a while since I posted the following chart:
source: coinmarketcap.com
Here is what happened, along with a new prediction:
source: coinmarketcap.com
As predicted, Bitcoin percentage of total market capitalization fell precipitously from 85% to below 40% over the course of a few short months.
I don’t think bitcoin will survive as the dominant sound-money protocol. Nakomoto consensus if flawed IMO, evidenced by the propencity of the network to prevent upgrading, specifically the failure to increase the 1mb block size limit, resulting in slam-full blocks and a parabolic increase in on-chain fees, accompanied by numerous security concerns associated with that. Also, energy waste from mining may not sustainable long-term. Right now, the front-runner looks to be Ethereum with the proposed casper consensus mechanism, which may potentially better reflect human consensus. After all, the goal is to achieve true consensus on a human level. Technology can only attempt to mimic this human-level consensus. Also, it is becoming more apparent that the final, and most successful, arbiter of human-level consensus is the hard fork.
We shall see how all of this plays out in this very dynamic space.
Disclaimer: None of this is advice of any kind.