You get in a bar and the waiter asks you for your order. Tequila obviously is one of your choices but will it be in a few years’ time?
Latest reports are showing that the world is extremely probable to face a massive tequila shortage that could force the price of a single bottle to go sky high.
The tequila market is estimated to grow past $9 billion by 2021. Since 2002, tequila brands have grown over 189% in volume and premium tequilas have skyrocketed to 568%. Nonetheless, producers of the popular spirit cannot carry on with the rising demand and express their concerns that the shortage may last until 2021, as it takes years for pure tequila to be made.
Tequila is made from the blue agave plant, the price of which has risen six-fold in the past two years. Also, the drink can be officially pronounced as Tequila only if it is grown in the following regions of Mexico: Jalisco, Nayarit, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, and Guanajuato.
According to the Tequila Regulatory Council (CRT) and the National Tequila Industry Chamber (CNIT), 17.7 million blue agaves were planted in 2011, in Mexico. The plants were designed to be used in 2018 and fulfil the market but the industry is scared that they will fall short as new projections claim 42 million plants would be needed. That would result to use crops from more recent years without having the same quality levels. Plus, the gap between demand-offer would escalate even further.
USA is the country with the most tequila imports. The country has increased their percentage for pure tequila imports nearly 198 % in the past decade, while the percentage rose only 11 % for cheaper-blend tequila.
Marco Polo Magdaleno, a worker in Guanajuato, Mexico, said;
“[Markets] are using four-year-old plants because there aren’t any others.
“I can guarantee it because I have sold them.”
Francisco Soltero, director of strategic planning at Patrón Spirits International, said:
“The growth has overtaken us – it’s a crisis of success of the industry.”
Experts are worried that early harvesting of the plant will only make matters worse over the next 12 months. In fact, that would drive many tequila companies to go out of business as they would be imposed to raise prices (making it difficult to compete in the market).
Farmers are expected to resist this difficulty and plant more blue agave plants, but still that would not solve the problem as the demand gets bigger every year. Another obstacle to the industry was the rise of thieving incidents. (more than 15,000 plants were stolen last year, a three-fold increase over 2016).