I had a chat with my friend about cryptocurrencies over a few beers recently and was almost laughed out of his house. He said they were a complete scam and told me that he invested in Ripple (XRP) at it's peek and he has lost a small fortune. When I started to explain why I felt Bitcoin and Monero were so important, it became clear he was not interested, probably still in pain from his losses.
He really highlighted the bear market attitude to me. I am no fan of Ripple and would have advised him not invest in that project if he had asked me. However, his response was what you would expect from a retail investor who entered into the market at it's peek. He rushed in at the end of a mania, not knowing what he was investing in, lost most of his money and now refuses to re-enter when it has bottomed because it is forever "A scam" to him. Unfortunately I suspect the time he next enters the market, it will again be at the end of the bull cycle.
It is so easy to fall into this mode of thinking. Because we are emotional creatures we get captured by our feelings every minute of the day, so managing ourselves on a daily basis can be hard enough, never mind trying to survive through dopamine drenched bull markets and cortisol soaked bears!
Peter Brandt, a highly respected technical analyst has recently posted this on Twitter:
I understand that Peter is not an oracle, but it does show that sentiment is changing. People are on the lookout for the bottom now. So if we consider Peter's target price of $4331 to be the end of the bear market, how could we get there?
A few options are presenting themselves to us at the moment. I understand that I am just another guy posting some charts but hey, that's what crypto folk do!
Below is the widely watched Ascending Triangle option.
We have the "Adam and Eve" pattern also potentially forming:
I honestly could keep going with these types of charts because I find them fascinating but I wont bore you. My point is that when people such as my friend have thrown in the towel and become frustrated by you even bringing the topic up, as though you are some kind of fool; we are probably at the very least in an accumulation zone. I do not want to offend my friend but he is "Dumb money", only feeling brave enough to enter the market at the end of the mania stage and seeing low prices as clarification that this industry is "Dead" rather than an ideal time to enter.
I have again and again said I am prepared for Tyler Jenkins projected $1000 Bitcoin. However, I am not foolish enough to ignore good prices when I see them. As you will have read on my previous entries, I entered significantly at $3600 and should we touch that price again or fall below it (Which I doubt we will) I will make further large (For me) purchases.
However, I am still dollar cost averaging in and always have been since I entered this market. Why? Because any of the prices I have seen are a fraction of the potential value that a true global currency could be, which offers:
Every price we have seen will pale into insignificance eventually BUT we are here in 2019, and current prices are important to us now. I believe we will visit $3100 again but have we bottomed... In my humble opinion, Yes!
