}
Today is 31.07.2021 and the price of Bitcoin sits at 41,6k USD after sharp rally in the last few days.
Except for last couple of days, August wasn't particurarly exciting. That's why my portfolio remained untouched. As you can see, USD value rose by 14% and is not slightly below the 100k USD threshold. Alts aren't showing much strenght for now, so BTC value dropped by 5%.
Due to recent price rally, I decided to reduce my BTC long. Still keeping the position open so the profit is reflected.
I remain macro bullish, yet cautious. Metrics that I'm looking at indicate that we are in either in a later stage of a bull market, or in around 1/3 of marco accumulation phase. Either way, it's not a good time to sell.
Earlier this year I though that this bull market will look much more like 2013 bullrun. That assumption was made by looking at market sentiment. Basically, everyone expected a bull market similar to the last one, which was very linear - and that's why it couldn't happen.
Right now everyone expects to see something similar to 2013, yet we have to realize that this bull market is very different already, with the first peak being much smoother and less overbought than 2013. Barely any indicator showed a "red" sell signal. Still, that's 2013'ish and most people expect another sharp ATH.
With that in mind it's crutial to adjust the strategy and play against the main market narrative. This is not 2013 and 2017 bull market with nerds and retail playing the game. It's 2021 and we have big, experienced players and institutions participating in the market. So how do we take advantage of that? I do not know yet. Assuming price will continue to move higher during next few months, maybe there will be just a double top around previous ATH? Or maybe it's an extended supercycle? Time will tell.
For now, I'm not taking any action, but I'm ready to reduce my position drastically as the price moves higher along with long-term holders distribution. I'm looking for overly positive sentiment and people talking around ~300k again.
