➤ 2017 and 2021:
In 2017 and 2021, during the major bull runs, Bitcoin's (BTC) market dominance peaked before its market value. Following this, BTC continued to rise, but its market dominance began to decline, signaling the start of the 'Altcoin Season'.
➤ 2019:
In the mini bull run of 2019, BTC's market value peaked first. Following this, BTC began to fall, and altcoins fell even more. Essentially, there was no significant Altcoin Season.
➤ 2023:
If we strictly adhere to previous patterns, 2023 should resemble 2019. However, current trends are similar to 2017 and 2021, with BTC's market dominance peaking first. As BTC continued to rise, its market share declined while altcoin values increased. Subsequently, BTC also began to fall.
Thus, it appears we may have already experienced an Altcoin Season, although most altcoins didn't show significant performance. This season belonged to 'Inscribed Tokens.' Without these, 2023 might have resembled 2019.
➤ 2024?
With only 11 days left until 2024, if a Bitcoin spot ETF is approved (though this seems unlikely), BTC could continue to rise. However, as analyzed in another post of mine, BTC typically follows a four-year cycle with three years of accumulation and one year of distribution. Hence, 2024 is likely to continue this trend.
Regardless of whether BTC breaks through $44,700 to reach new highs or retraces, caution is advised for altcoins.
But what about Inscribed Tokens?
I can only say that Homogenized Tokens and NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) trade differently:
With Homogenized Tokens, one can buy or sell on either side of the market, as these tokens are interchangeable and there's volume in trades.
For NFTs, most lack a left side before the rise. Buying on the right side is possible, but selling on the right side can be challenging due to their non-fungibility and lower liquidity. Once an NFT's peak is confirmed, it's uncertain whether there will be buyers on the other side.
➤2017与2021
2017和2021年是大牛，BTC市占率比BTC市值先达到顶部。
接下来，BTC继续上涨，而BTC市占率开始下降，进入山寨季。
➤2019
2019年小牛，BTC市值先到达顶部。BTC接下来开始下跌，而山寨跌的更多。基本上，没有山寨季。
➤2023
2023年如果纯刻舟的话，应该和2019年一样。
但是，就目前的表现来看，和2017、2021年的表现一样，BTC的市占率先到顶。BTC继续向上时，市占率下降，山寨币市值在上涨。随后BTC也开始了下跌。
所以说，我们应该已经经历过山寨季了，虽然大部分山寨没有什么表现。
这一波山寨季是属于铭文代币的，如果没有铭文代币，有可能2023年会像2019年那样。
➤2024？
仅剩11天便进入2024，如果BTC现货ETF通过(虽然小蜜蜂觉得这种可能性不大)，BTC会继续向上。
但是，小蜜蜂以前的另一个贴子分析过，BTC4年周期中，3年吸血、1年放血，所以2024很可能会继续吸血行情。
所以，无论BTC接下来是突破44700走向新高，还是回调，山寨可能都要小心。
那么铭文代币呢？
小蜜蜂只能说——同质化代币和NFT(非同质化代币)在交易时有所不同：
同质化代币，可以在左侧或右侧买入或卖出，因为代币同质化，交易有量。
NFT，大部分在上涨之前没有左侧，右侧买入可以；但是在右侧卖出时，因为非同质，流动性较差，当NFT确认顶部以后，右侧不一定有人接盘了。
