Hi Steemians,
So obviously BCC is the talk of the town now and for good reason. It looks like BCC will be there August 1 but what happens next is anyone’s guess. I see three scenarios, assuming BCC will go ahead:
- BCC sell off. Since everyone will be getting BCC for free there is a massive sell off of BCC straight away - also to prove a point to these ‘rogue’ miners to protect the future of Bitcoin going forward. Steady as we go from there and Bitcoin will rise since there is no new bitcoin-coin.
- BCC explodes. BCC will be backed and form a stable base - sentiment changes like we have seen with ETH classic and the coin will initially explode before profit takers stabilise it. Bitcoin however will fall, causing the other currencies to fall.
- Non-event. Yes BCC happens but because of all the hype before everyone has taken positions and nothing really happens on the day itself. As a result people won’t put any more money in BTC or BCC and this can mean the other currencies could get a boost.
Mind you, I’m just thinking out loud here trying to make sense of this situation. For more background please read the 
@boxmining posts - these are super helpful and Michael understand the market better than I ever will.
But the reason for me to write this post is to crystallise my thinking and also create a thesis and approach for my crypto holdings. You see, in scenario 1, I would not change my current portfolio make-up, in scenario 2 I would move more into BTC now - getting more BCC as a result and move BTC back into e.g. ETH on August 1, scenario 3 would probably mean I would move more out of BTC now, probably into ETH.
What are your thoughts?? See any other scenarios and what would you do?
Cheers, Jeroen (aka The Transparent Trader)
