Another ATL For Hive
Just two weeks ago I was more optimistic for a new floor for Hive. It seemed that 8-10 cents was going to hold and Hive could grow from there. Here is a quick recap:
But now that Hive has made a new ATL at around 6 cents (somewhat discounting the 10/10 flash crash), it's clear that it was too soon to call the bottom for Hive.
So where does that leave us?
I am still hoping that the current price movement is a reflection of the 2020-2021 downward trend which ended with a short consolidation and a massive impulse wave. But honestly it's more hopium than backed up by much at all.
The new ATL at around 6 cents actually was predicted by an illusive trend line coming back all the way from 2021. These are wicks on the weekly chart with the second one being the 10/10 one and a third now at current lows. The good news is that price is already back up over 20% from the lows - but there isn't really much support. In other words, I could easily see price going lower. The trend line itself allows for a drop to around 5.5 cents in summer when it is met by a resistance from the previous highs (red).
Until a stronger bottom is formed from weekly candles I am not sure where the bottom will be, especially since BTC is probably not going to bottom until Q4 of this year.
The 200 SMA has been somewhat of a good indicator for at least signalling a bullish or bearish phase. Price is very far away from going above it again. If no big uptrend happens in the coming months, then we'd probably need a price of 10+ cents to be above it again.
Conclusion
Yes, I called the bottom too early. And yes, I am not sure where it will be. In any case, the prices currently make a great entry point for anyone that still has some conviction in Hive. It "only" takes $3.5k to get into the Orca league now... But with every project it's tough to buy when uncertainty is highest.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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