It's starting to get interesting (in a bad way). Hive's price has once more taken a dump and I think we are reaching a point soon which will test the resolve not just of (long time) users, but of the network itself as well. The debt ratio is now skyrocketing once again and we are fast closing in on 30%. As you can see in the chart, we have never been at these levels. We are "only" a 40% crash away from "unsustainable debt". The implications of a 30%+ debt ratio essentially means that no HBD will be issued from post rewards.. Additionally, the Hive > HBD conversation is not functional (although this is already the case).
Nothing dramatic will happen should we go over that debt ratio (e.g. the chain will stop working), but the Hive network itself will be under stress since some functionality isn't available anymore. Perhaps the biggest threat would be a decoupling of HBD from the $1 peg. We have seen this before and so far we have avoided it by some network upgrades we saw. A decoupling would be problematic since the mechanisms in place to stabilize it will not work anymore. In a worst case scenario, it could take many months for HBD to go back to $1 and ironically it will depend on Hive's price going back up again. But why should it go back up if the chain is under so much debt/stress? The "good news" is that a recovery has happened before, so I don't think the network will be caught in a downward spiral, but the threat is there...
It will probably also be a good idea to lower the HBD interest or perhaps completely remove it for a limited period as it is only creating more debt. I will adjust my witness votes accordingly.
The charts look somewhat strange in that we just had the third most active trading period in Hive's history with price going lower. Previously I have argued that we would see price going back up, since this has always happened so far. 
Price has broken down on the daily and weekly support lines (blue and purple) and is in "free fall" currently, with Hive for the first time breaking into the 4 cent area (if we ignore the 10/10 crash).
On the macro chart we can see that the brief consolidation period we were in looks like it will break down lower as well.
To be clear: there is no support in the <5 cents area. The bounce I envisioned can now only rematerialize should we quickly enter into a V-shaped recovery taking price back into the 5-6 cents area. Honestly, it doesn't look good.
It looks like we are all about to find out what will happen to Hive with a debt ratio exceeding 30% and a potential HBD decoupling. Hard times ahead.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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