I want to discuss here why that seems unlikely now. However, I think ETH can still reach 10k+ in this cycle. I always use the past to forecast the future with more or less success. This was the market movement I based my decision on from 2017:
My reasoning was that the 2017 peak of 4 was the peak 3 of 2021. Logically, I was expecting the 4 to occur in the coming weeks. The movement in this year was not as clear as in the last cycle as the price movement was much less extreme. This can be confusing when counting the fractals.
Of course now that we have more data, it is apparent that this way of counting was flawed. The correct way would have looked like this:
This fits much better and unfortunately I got it wrong. One of the main arguments for my first count was that the trend lines still had room for further upward momentum. But it seems that this cycle is just not as bullish as the last one.
If we continue to follow the past cycle, the movement should look something like this:
A gradual increase to about 4k again and a correction to 3k (?). I would expect this to happen sometime in August. The peak of this cycle should still be at the end of this year or early next year.
While my prediction might seem to have been incorrect, I would argue that it was still pretty accurate. The top of 5k was almost reached and more importantly, the big correction of 60%+ occurred exactly as anticipated. It seems that I "just" got the counting wrong...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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