Some days ago, BTC encountered the rejection that seemed quite likely after we had similar movements in the past. However, it is still not completely confirmed, as there will most definitely be another attempt at breaking it. Nevertheless, it seems the more bearish scenario is currently more favorable.
Let's have a look back at what we were saying: After the breakout from the high 20s, there was news about amazon and cryptos again. I think this contributed in the rally we saw thus far (hence the "Bezos" rally). Together with some other factors, this led me to speculate that we were in for a possible bigger correction still.
The "quadruple" resistance that was necessary for this macro scenario to play out has so far held:
We then identified a possible pattern of "threes" which led to this prediction:
There is still a chance that the market will recover from this and we see a fourth attempt at this main resistance. But it seems increasingly likely that on the macro scale the market has decided for a bigger correction. On the micro scale, however, there is still a possibility for a fourth wave.
Three scenarios seem possible to me: a further correction down to about 42k with a fourth wave to about 46k. A smaller peak at around 49k and a further decline. And third, another attempt at breaking the trend line. But a breakout out of this resistance seems increasingly less likely.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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