It seems that Hive has to grind along established patterns
6 weeks ago I was more optimistic since we were seeing some pumps and a pattern that could have lifted us off into orbit (or more like 30-40 cents). But again; after 3 years of witnessing these types of price actions we don’t get spared and the dumping followed like it always has so far. Back then we were getting almost $100M of daily volume (still blows my mind).
But, low and behold – Hive is back at ~16 cents support which is demoralizing to say the least.
Long standing prediction failed?
Before talking about Hive’s future, let’s quickly revisit the chart that has so far predicted the correction to ~16 cents and the consolidation there:
Back in September this chart looked like 🔥 and I could almost not believe that price followed this chart almost down to the letter. But the sharp rise in price has not transpired (yet). Instead, we have seen a correction back to the macro supporting trend line.
Outlook
Since I refuse to accept the bearish scenario that would have Hive falling down from this support into an abyss, I think we are faced with two major possibilites.
- More consolidation: The major resistance coming from the previous highs in the weekly chart is giving us a trend line (purple) that intersects the current supporting line (blue) in early next year. So there is a lot of time for Hive to hang out at these levels. The „problem“ is that this wouldn’t really give us enough space to establish a propoer uptrend before the end of 2025. That could signal a very weak bull run for Hive.
- Break out in December/January: At around new year 2020/2021 Hive broke out significantly to the top which has also been a break out signal for Bitcoin in previous cycles. As such, it could be that BTC finally breaks new ATHs and ushers in the ALT season. This would have us seeing around 6-8 weeks more consolidation before going parabolic. As with the previous scenario, this doesn’t leave Hive too much space to hit new ATHs in 2025 – but (!) that is assuming that the crypto cycle ends in late 2025.
Conclusion
I would have preferred the path for Hive that I have first envisioned in June (first chart). This would have us at 30-40 cents already and price would follow a very similar pattern as in 2021. Nobody of course knows when the bull run will peak this time and I am starting to think that we could see a general shift and lengthening of the 4 year cycle. At the very least, it seems that the ALT season could be expanding (although that doesn’t necessarily mean that price will go up only – but just in relation to BTC).
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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