In the world today what's the probability of one living up to a triple digits?
View the original post on Musing.io
Mortality and life expectancy in general varies by many factors, in particular:
* Country - Japan has a life expectancy from birth of over 89 years whilst Chad is only 49 years.
* Sex - Women are expected to live longer than men. In Japan, for example, women's life expectancy is around 6 years more than men.
* Social grouping or income - Rich people have higher life expectancy than poorer people.
So the probability of living to 100+ will vary greatly by these factors.
For any particular group of people you can find a starting point for the probability of living to age 100+ by looking at the most recent population mortality table.
This page has Japanese mortality tables, both sexes combined.
http://www.ipss.go.jp/p-toukei/JMD/00/STATS/bltper_1x1.txt
Scrolling down to the bottom, the most recent study date is from 2016. If you look at the lx column at age 0 there are 100,000 lives in the cohort. If you look at age 100 (still with the 2016 data) the number of lives is 4,668.
So assuming population mortality remains at 2016 levels there would be a 4.66% chance of living to age 100+.
However this is not the end of the story. In general population mortality improves over time. So you would need to also factor in assumed rates of improvement in mortality from the 2016 rates. This would increase the probability of living to 100+.
Of course, this is all probability and statistics based on historic data. If the world changes significantly over the next 100 years, with war, disease, lack of resources, or alternatively huge advances in medical treatments then the tables will no longer be as relevant as currently.