I've been trading bitcoin since 2013 and I have over 15 years of experience trading in traditional capital markets.
I evaluate trades based on five key buckets: (1) fundamentals, (2) liquidity, (3) technicals, (4) sentiment, and (5) positioning.
For entry and exit points, I always rely on technical analysis.
The most reliable chart patterns are those first identified by Richard W. Schabacker in his 1932 book entitled: "Technical Analysis & Stock Market Profits."
A free copy of this book can be found using this link: https://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/34201934/900609546/name/Technical_Analysis.pdf
In Study III, Schabacker identifies the descending triangle formation which formed in bitcoin between September 1st and September 13th. The pattern broke below the horizontal boundary of the descending triangle on September 13th. This signals a decline in the price equal to the height of the triangle. In my image below, the distance from A to B should equal the distance from B to C and targets $3,150.