Oil moving north towards $100 a barrel may not be out of the question. With geopolitical considerations - well within the interest of Russia and the Saudis and their pals the OPEC countries, as well as growing demand.
But more importantly:
"rising gas prices could wipe out about a third of the annual take-home pay generated by the tax cuts."
Those with little to no disposable income already will feel the hit to their checkbooks.
Not to mention how much it's going to help the stagflation they're already seeing.
And it turns out that I'm not the only one to suggest $100/bbl oil:
"Last week, Bank of America became the first Wall Street bank to call $100/bbl for Brent crude (at the time, it was trading around $77/bbl) in 2019. That could send prices to highs not seen since 2008. Other banks have been scrambling to raise their forecasts as well."
Also due to the stagflation situation in the nation, the Fed is going to have to hike, with rates likely to soar and the yield curve collapsing - quite the fascinating scenario:
"With the Fed changing its language in its latest policy statement to reflect rising inflation expectations, rising oil prices could also inspire the Fed to hike interest rates more quickly for fear that the economy might overheat. That could result in four - or perhaps five - rate hikes this year."
I'd also put my money on massive defaults. With manufactured defaults a very interesting occurrence as well: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-13/orphan-cds-manufactured-credit-events-insufficient-deliverables-just-what-going-cds
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-15/wsj-sounds-alarm-theres-no-getting-over-gas-4-gallon
