Thanks for this, I'm going to include this in my video for my subs to read - very good breakdown - 4.8 r0 would be pretty grave indeed. I am looking at the cruise ships now - it will be interesting to see what the reported cases in this are - but i agree about the China, I think it is highly unlikely they are telling the true numbers - what the world will look like in three months will be the true sign, because information will not be able to be contained if the numbers it reaches a world wide pandemic level - thanks heaps for this analysis!