With Wolves' fixtures now taking a turn for the worse, it's time for me to dispose of the services of Raul Jimenez. Having decided to follow my Defenders Analysis last week and transfer in Serge Reguilon, I'm hoping I can make the best use of this week's transfer once again.
I'd usually set a maximum budget but I've got 2 transfers in the bank so have some flexibility if there's a more expensive option that stands out for me. So let's get started...
I begin by looking at my analysis of Expected Goals Against (xGA), Relative Fixture Difficulty and whether that fixture's home or away. I then apply a weighting (which is slowly learning) to correlate these values with the likelihood of that team's players appearing in the top players for that Gameweek.
The teams that I highlight in orange are those that have Premium options that I would consider captaining. Since Mo Salah is ruining captaincy selections, we don't really need to worry about this.
So looking at all of the players who have had some involvement in the past 5 matches (i.e. Form > 0) and looking at players from Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Burnley and Arsenal, we can prioritise them as follows. I include data for minutes played, xG, xA which I then extrapolate an FPL score from and assign each player an indication of their Value (FPL score / Price). I also include per 90 stats.
There are only 3 options worth considering and none of them scream "Get Me!". The next group of teams is closely clustered so let's see if anybody stands out from a wider range of players.
The options will now include Man Utd, Leicester, Spurs, West Ham, Brentford, Brighton and Crystal Palace.
We have a lot more players to choose from now and Aubameyang still comes out top of the list.
Whilst I'm still not convinced by Aubameyang, I'll look at how consistent these top players are to see if anybody stands out.
We should also remember that Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner appear well down the list as they're only just returning from injury and could present themselves as viable options.
None of these players are filling me with any excitement or optimism and perhaps I'm overlooking Aubameyang too quickly. It's a big shift though and I'd need to find £2.1 from my midfield (i.e. a £5.3m option) so it's not a move that really fits with my team.
Slightly cheaper, I like Gabriel Jesus but even with the high minutes he's racked up, Expected Goal Involvement and Points haven't been flowing in his direction. Not to mention Pep's fondness for rotation.
Toney could be my move given his budget-friendly price and guaranteed minutes but he's a player who I won't be expecting much from if I do decide to get him - I'll then have extra money to boost my Midfield or Defence.
Knowing that I've got 2 free transfers this Gameweek is making me lean towards a switch in formation to 3-5-2 or perhaps even 4-4-2. Traditionally, I've been a 3-4-3 man so this is quite a shift in approach for me but it's important to allow yourself flexibility if you hope to win.
so much to ponder 🤔
Please let me know what you think. Are you a Jimenez owner considering any of these replacements? Are there other options you're looking at? What do you think of my analysis? Am I being unfair on Aubameyang?
