An Open Letter to the Soft Landing Consensus To: Every strategist who wrote "one more cut and we're done" in the fourth quarter of 2024 You were so close. The disinflation had legs, the labour

Warsh's Opening Move Was Hawkish. The Bond Market Isn't Fully Convinced. On June 17th, the two-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points in a single session. That was the largest single-day move on an

The Sheriff Arrived Just As The Outlaws Left Town The May PCE report came in Thursday and it was, by almost every headline metric, the number that Warsh hawks have been pointing at for months. Headline

Thursday, 9:47 AM. The PCE Just Printed. Someone Is Buying Wendy's. The number hits at 8:30. Headline PCE 4.1%, highest in three years. Core at 3.4%. In line with estimates, which tells you the market

INTERNAL NOTE — MACRO DESK Re: The Energy Trade Has Turned. Update Your Models. Brent closed at $73.74 on Wednesday. WTI at $70.34. Both at their lowest level since before the US and Israel launched strikes

Seven Funerals and a Bond Market Britain is about to inaugurate its seventh prime minister in roughly a decade. Let that integer breathe for a moment. Seven. In the same stretch of time, the United States

The Night Before Micron It's the night before Micron reports and I'm doing what I always do the night before a memory company reports a potentially cycle-defining number: sitting here reciting the old

INTERNAL — RATES & MACRO DESK Re: The Warsh Dove Trade. An Autopsy. Monday, June 22 Let's get this done quickly so we can move on. The thesis was clean. Too clean, in retrospect. Trump nominates Kevin

To Every Fund Manager Who Put SPCX In Their Model Portfolio This Week [Memo format. No sender. No recipient. You know who you are.] Let's establish what actually happened. SpaceX raised $75 billion on

The 500 Doesn't Know What It Is Anymore Sometime before Monday's open, a committee of investors who never touched a can of soup in their professional lives will finally finish evicting The Campbell's Company

Congratulations, You Bought a Calendar SpaceX went from $135 to $225.64 in five trading sessions and nobody on financial television could stop talking about the human spirit. The human spirit! That's the

The Currency That Prints Itself Six trading days. That's how long it took SpaceX to go from a $135 IPO price to a market cap large enough to leapfrog Microsoft. The company raised $86.2 billion in the

The Producer Price Index doesn't usually get its own day in the sun. It's the data release that exists to be quoted in someone else's report about the data release that mattered. Not this month. May's

Notes From a Long Position That Did Not Survive June The first crack was $72,840. Intraweek high, end of May, and I remember thinking that was the number where this finally felt clean — no more chop, no

MEMO TO: The pension fund trustees who think they made an active decision this quarter FROM: The math RE: You now own a piece of SPCX whether you wanted to or not Let's walk through what actually happened

3:47am and I'm staring at a chart that looks like someone dropped a bowling ball down a flight of stairs. BTC is sitting around $63,800, off the cycle high of $126,198 by exactly the amount that makes

The Inheritance There is a photograph from May 22nd, the day Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve, his hand raised before Justice Clarence Thomas at the White House. What the

The Return of the Central Banker There is a specific kind of madness that grips markets when central banks, simultaneously, start moving in the same direction after years of divergence. We last saw it

The Market Has Decided. You Were Not Consulted. Tonight, somewhere in a conference room that costs more per square foot than your apartment, Goldman Sachs and a syndicate of bankers are finalizing the

Seven Days Inside Kevin Warsh's Skull A dispatch from someone who has been staring at the Fed funds futures strip for too long. Okay. Walk me through this again, slowly. We have a new Fed chair — sworn