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2017-07-12 11:06

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thauerbyi

2026-08-21 04:39

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what the sell-side wants you to look at

what the sell-side wants you to look at

Let's start with what the sell-side wants you to look at, because it's mostly theater. Consensus has Nvidia printing $91.85 billion in fiscal Q2 revenue Wednesday after the close, against the company's

$ 0.000

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thauerbyi

2026-08-20 04:32

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Retail Week, and the 40x Problem Nobody Wants to Name

Retail Week, and the 40x Problem Nobody Wants to Name

Before Walmart opens this morning, sit with one number: the stock trades at nearly 40 times forward earnings. Nvidia, the company selling the actual physical infrastructure of the artificial intelligence

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thauerbyi

2026-08-19 05:03

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The Metal Doesn't Believe the Bond

The Metal Doesn't Believe the Bond

The Metal Doesn't Believe the Bond Gold is holding above $4,400 an ounce this morning. The 30-year Treasury yield is sitting above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007. Both of these things are true at the

thauerbyi

2026-08-18 04:03

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The Yen Is Doing What Currencies Do When Nobody Believes the Defense

The Yen Is Doing What Currencies Do When Nobody Believes the Defense

The Yen Is Doing What Currencies Do When Nobody Believes the Defense Tokyo spent 11.7 trillion yen — roughly $73 billion — defending a currency that is back within a percentage point of where the intervention

thauerbyi

2026-08-17 04:55

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Gold's at a Record. Bitcoin's Down 47%. And Everyone's Still Calling It "Digital Gold"

Gold's at a Record. Bitcoin's Down 47%. And Everyone's Still Calling It "Digital Gold"

Let’s just sit with this for a second, because I don’t think the “digital gold” crowd has actually looked at a chart lately. Spot gold is parked around $4,437 an ounce, a level that would have sounded

thauerbyi

2026-08-16 04:00

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Somebody Is Getting Very Rich Off a War Nobody Will Admit Is Still Happening

Somebody Is Getting Very Rich Off a War Nobody Will Admit Is Still Happening

Somebody Is Getting Very Rich Off a War Nobody Will Admit Is Still Happening Let’s just say the quiet part with our chests out: a major war-adjacent shipping blockade is now a corporate guidance line item,

thauerbyi

2026-08-15 04:34

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A Boiler Leaked in East Java and Nobody on CNBC Noticed

A Boiler Leaked in East Java and Nobody on CNBC Noticed

A Boiler Leaked in East Java and Nobody on CNBC Noticed Somewhere in a control room outside Surabaya on the night of August 8th, a boiler at PT Smelting’s Gresik plant sprang a leak, residents a few kilometers

thauerbyi

2026-08-14 04:35

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Remarks on the Valley

Remarks on the Valley

Remarks on the Valley [Delivered to no one. Recorded for the record.] Let’s talk about geography for a minute, because geography is not usually where the interesting monetary story hides — except this

thauerbyi

2026-08-13 04:02

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The Long End Isn't Buying It

The Long End Isn't Buying It

The Long End Isn't Buying It Kevin Warsh got his in-line CPI print on Wednesday. Headline 3.4%, down a tenth from June. Core 2.5%, softest since February. Every number landed exactly on the Dow Jones

thauerbyi

2026-08-12 03:32

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Optics Sector "Profit-Taking

Optics Sector "Profit-Taking

Start with the number the sell side refuses to lead with: Coherent trades at 160 times trailing earnings. Lumentum sits at 146 times. These are not growth multiples. They are momentum-cult multiples—the

thauerbyi

2026-08-11 04:14

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Gold at $4,350 and the Uncomfortable Question Nobody on the Committee Wants Asked

Gold at $4,350 and the Uncomfortable Question Nobody on the Committee Wants Asked

Before the next client call lands asking why gold is “still going up” after the move we’ve already had, we need a cleaner frame than the one the Fed will ever use in public. Gold is not pricing inflation.

thauerbyi

2026-08-10 04:10

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Everyone please stop calling this a rally

Everyone please stop calling this a rally

INTERNAL — DESK MEMO RE: Everyone please stop calling this a rally To whoever keeps putting "S&P 500 at record highs" on the morning note without a footnote: cut it out. Technically true.

thauerbyi

2026-08-09 03:55

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Wall Street Couldn't Call Gold Right Either Direction, and Nobody's Owning It

Wall Street Couldn't Call Gold Right Either Direction, and Nobody's Owning It

Wall Street Couldn't Call Gold Right Either Direction, and Nobody's Owning It Every major shop on the Street spent the second quarter revising gold targets in the wrong direction at the wrong moment, and

thauerbyi

2026-08-08 03:42

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Who Was Buying While Everyone Else Was Screaming

Who Was Buying While Everyone Else Was Screaming

MEMO: RE: Who Was Buying While Everyone Else Was Screaming TO: Desk FROM: [redacted] RE: The Bitcoin cohort nobody was watching CLASSIFICATION: Read it twice I need everyone to sit with a number before

thauerbyi

2026-08-07 06:42

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8:14 A.M., Sixteen Minutes to Print

8:14 A.M., Sixteen Minutes to Print

8:14 A.M., Sixteen Minutes to Print Okay. Coffee's cold, screens are green, and I'm staring at a range of estimates so wide it stops being a forecast and starts being a confession. Eighty-three thousand.

thauerbyi

2026-08-06 06:43

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Remarks to a Room That Doesn't Want to Hear It

Remarks to a Room That Doesn't Want to Hear It

Remarks to a Room That Doesn't Want to Hear It Sit down. All of you. I know you came here for the good news, for someone to stand up and tell you $150,000 is coming by Christmas, but I'm going to spend

thauerbyi

2026-08-05 05:53

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The S&P 500 Isn't a Market Anymore. It's a Position.

The S&P 500 Isn't a Market Anymore. It's a Position.

The S&P 500 Isn't a Market Anymore. It's a Position. Start with the number nobody put in a headline today: the top ten names in the S&P 500 now account for roughly 41% of the index's total weight.

thauerbyi

2026-08-04 04:45

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The Beat Rate Is Lying to You, Just Not the Way You Think

The Beat Rate Is Lying to You, Just Not the Way You Think

The Beat Rate Is Lying to You, Just Not the Way You Think Eighty-five percent. That's the share of S&P 500 companies that have topped estimates this earnings season, out of roughly 300 that have reported

thauerbyi

2026-08-03 05:17

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3:47 AM, Refreshing Coinbase

3:47 AM, Refreshing Coinbase

3:47 AM, Refreshing Coinbase Sixty-three six. It was sixty-four an hour ago. Check again. Sixty-three five. The app doesn't even have the decency to load slow anymore, it just serves you the number instantly,

thauerbyi

2026-08-02 07:07

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Remarks to a Room That Already Knows the Numbers

Remarks to a Room That Already Knows the Numbers

Remarks to a Room That Already Knows the Numbers Fifty-seven thousand. That's what the US economy managed in June — less than half the 115,000 economists penciled in, and it only looked that decent because