When I was on vacation in Indonesia and the Philippines I didn't drive even once. I just used the Grab app. I entered the destination I wanted to go I pressed "get a ride" and a few minutes later someone came to pick me up right where I was. The price was fixed, the destination was fixed, no surprise charges and no hassles.
Compared to actually having a vehicle, having to drive, having to find parking, having to pay for fuel, maintenance, insurance and repairs? No comparison I would choose Grab each and every time. However, while it was great for me it is a grueling job for those people driving the Grab cars. With the current increased price of fuel I would say that it makes a tough job virtually impossible.
Just the thought of driving a car that long, in those congested conditions for so little money makes me a little bit sad.
But how would I change it? What would make things better?
When I was in Manila and Jakarta there were vehicles everywhere. They seemed to fill every available inch of space on the road. Many of the vehicles were just one passenger, many more were just one grab driver and a single passenger. An awful lot of empty seats no the road. Well, with the exception of scooters which of course were always at full capacity and darted in and out of traffic making everything less safe and feel more congested.
Of course there were busses, jeepney's and other forms of public transit. The problem is that I just didn't know where the public transportation took me, or how to pay the fare, or generally how to get around in a way that wasn't a Grab. End result: Streets are a nightmare in Manila and Jakarta ... not much better in Surabaya plus I would hazard a guess that in every major center in the world traffic is continually getting worse.
That's not even counting the pollution, the dependence on foreign fuel sources and the cost to productivity from people being trapped on the street for long period of time.
If you ask me?
It is time for a change
Singapore had a very nice system albeit a bit elitist. What I heard, and can't verify, is that people who wanted to purchase a private vehicle had to pay a road fee of $100,000 in addition to the price of the vehicle. Anyone who wanted could buy a vehicle but it was very expensive to do so. That $100,000? It was used to make sure that there was very good public transit and excellent subway system.
Japan also had a very efficient subway system. IF you can figure it out it is a great way to travel.
However, the Japanese and Singaporean system require heavy infrastructure and Manila? It is so crowded that space for big railway of infrastructure systems could be very challenging.
My thoughts?
A spoke, hub, trunk system of autonomous vehicles along with expensive road usage fees for private vehicles. Leverage things that the Filipino already have to make things better all around. Also, I think it could work well in other places such as my home country of Canada also.
What is a Spoke, Hub, Trunk system? At its core it is fairly simple.
The Spoke In small local areas there is a feeder system which goes small distances and takes people to a transportation node. In Manila there are pedicabs, trikes and scooters which are often used for short trips. Often to jeepney stops.
The Hub After the pedicabs and trikes get you to a jeepney stop you can take a larger transit option for longer distances usually still within a defined route.
The Trunk If you need to go longer distances there are major nodes where you can get long distance busses. The ones I know are Ortigas and Bonifacio Global City. The location doesn't matter the fact that from these hubs you can take better busses like the point to point bus system to go further afield and often to different towns within the country.
In short:
Pedicab --> Jeepney --> Bus
(yes, they have a rail system but WOW is it crowded)
What if we could optimize the current system though?
Right now we have major roads clogged with private drivers, Grab drivers, Scooter driver, freight drivers along with pedestrians and possibly the odd chicken crossing the road (mostly joking about the chicken but...)
Pedicab drivers? That's a tough job pedaling in Manila heat. Jeepney drivers? Bus drivers? Trying to navigate a large vehicle in a sea of traffic chaos (shudder).
How about automating the whole thing?
Sure let some people pay the $100,000 privilege to have a private vehicle and use that money to buy robotaxi's for the rest of the population. With China able to produce $10,000 electric vehicles? Add a bit for self driving? 8 public transit vehicles added for every one personally owned vehicle.
And small EV's are incredibly efficient! I own one and it is an older model but still it uses about $1.50 worth of electricity per 150km or about $0.015 per km. A very efficient scooter uses about $4.00 worth of fuel to do that same 150km which is double the price. My EV can hold 4 people but a scooter only a driver plus one. My EV needs very very little maintenance (basically tires and occasional brakes) while a scooter is basic but has many more things that can break. Get into an accident in a scooter and, well, it ends badly most of the time. Of course small EV's only have a 200km range or so.
Still... If small EV's were used for the "spoke" area? Waiting for people to call them with an app then going to pick them up along with some others along the way? Take them to a hub, charge for a bit then go when people need it? Pedicab drivers can sit in the EV and greet people all day making sure they behave in the vehicle until they get to the hub.
At the hub? Hop out of a small EV and into a larger more comfy van style EV. Go from hub to hub on a direct route and end at either another "spoke" area or a "trunk" area if you are going further.
Is it as convenient as a grab from here to there? Not at all.
But if every vehicle going across town was multi passenger instead of single passenger the roads would clear up considerably making things much faster overall. If your trip was :
If traffic congestion was considerably reduced it could be much faster
Simple: spoke-->hub-->spoke
But for a longer trip? Add a trunk. A long distance self driving bus that goes between major centers.
Again simple: spoke-->hub-->trunk-->hub-->spoke
Yes it is a lot of hops but if they are easy hops, a fast ride, and cheap? I think it could be a compelling option.
Current systems try to do this model but often fail because...different routes...different times...different drivers and general limitations of human systems.
But what if it was all run and controlled by a central controller
Imagine one app where you could add your current pickup location and destination and the app determined the route. It arranged a feeder car to pick you up. It dropped you off at a hub where a vehicle would be identified as the one you hop onto next and NFC or other technology would assure you that it was the right vehicle. Each hop synchronized by a system that knows exactly where people are going and adjusts to each individual persons needs. The controller making sure a streamlined trip for every user.
Imagine vehicles that talk to each other through a network and speed up, slow down, or reroute to ensure everything flows nicely.
AI can watch passengers cellphone signals to make sure they are going the right way (and adjust if they aren't). Self driving cars can talk to each other so traffic signals can be vehicle controlled and traffic optimized. Systems can run 24 hours no one runs into a time when no vehicles are available.
A system that works from beginning to end using a suitable sized vehicle for each point.
Now what I envision are roads where the majority of vehicles are self driving and linked to a central vehicle traffic controller. 24/7 vehicles where the quantity on the road changes with demand and a few people spend the money to have a vehicle all their own but even it could be self driving so that it can mesh in with all the other vehicles on the road and "communicate" to make sure it gets routed as efficiently as possible.
A few things happen when every vehicle is on the network.
If two vehicles end up in a collision and they are both part of a central network? Neither vehicle is responsible and it is the network which is responsible for repairs and damages. No more he said/she said. That makes everything a whole lot simpler
If the majority of vehicles are fleet vehicles for public transportation that means it can be serviced by a central location and all vehicles can undergo regular maintenance to make sure they are unlikely to fail. Where everyone owns their own vehicle and everyone has to pay on their own? Some people are meticulous in maintenance and others ignore it completely. Now imagine if all vehicles has proper tires, proper brakes, proper mechanical inspections ... like airplanes ... sure things could fail but I bet it would be much less likely.
If the vehicles are now autonomous that puts a lot of people out of work, right? Well, what if it didn't? What if current drivers just became concierge? What if they were on the vehicle to make sure everyone had a safe ride? Help elderly onto the vehicle. Make sure people behaved properly towards other passengers. Kept things neat, clean and orderly.
They aren't out of a job, but their job just got a whole lot easier. Plus you solve the problem of people who suck when there isn't anyone around watching them.
Currently I believe the technology exists for self driving cars. The AI exists for keeping everything on track and on time. The apps exist to let vehicles know where a driver needs to be picked up. GPS and NFC technology exist so that every person can be tracked and directed exactly where they want to go.
The problem is laws, ownership and liability.
Many people LOVE having their own vehicle and it becomes an extension of who they are. They will revolt if told "you can't own a vehicle". Laws around vehicles always look at "who is responsible in an accident" and mandate who can and can't operate a vehicle. Plus manufacturers are vying for customers and always want more and more people to buy their product.
Take away private ownership? Take away the market for new vehicles? Go up against archaic driving laws? It would be an uphill battle to get anything done.
However, if you could? If you could free drivers from the tedious chore of driving? If you could bring in a chain of clean vehicles to reduce pollution and gasoline/diesel dependance? If you could take away legal disputes over who caused what accident and just focus on getting people the care they need and getting vehicles replaced after it? I think that would be a nice system to be part of.
Just my thoughts of course.
... but if I could create a Utopia, there would be no traffic and no-one would need to drive. No smog just a vehicle or system to take you wherever you needed, whenever you needed, powered by a system that made sure you got there safe and sound.
Sounds good to me, but I would love to hear other opinions :)
Thanks for reading. Always appreciate eyes on my posts :)
