From a technical perspective, Litecoin (LTC/USD) has effectively ended its bear market. This statement may sound unbelievable to many; even to some bulls. We’ve decayed in a crypto winter for so long that many of us have forgotten what a bull market looks like. We’re so used to seeing bounces fade and eventually get dumped on, that we’ve grown skeptical of rallies.
However, this time it’s different. It truly is, and we have multiple reasons to back up this claim. In this article, we explore the signals that show how Litecoin completed its Wyckoffian Accumulation.
Smart Money Accumulation Complete
A bear market often does not end due to exhaustion. It usually ends because a big player has entered the market to stop the bleeding. This individual or entity, which we’ll refer to as the smart money, absorbs the intense selling pressure of a capitulating market while keeping the price relatively stable. During this period of the market cycle, the smart money accumulate positions.
We believe that Litecoin has already completed this market phase. Its daily chart shows many similarities to a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
Wyckoff Accumulation (Source: Stockcharts)
Preliminary Support
The first similarity is the establishment of a preliminary support (PS). According to the Wyckoffian theory, the PS offers some semblance of support after a prolonged or substantial move down. In Litecoin’s case, it registered a PS of $27 on November 24, 2018. During this time, Litecoin showed signs of stability after weeks of massive selloffs led by Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) break below $6,000.
LTC/USD Preliminary support
Selling Climax
The second similarity is the presence of a selling climax (SC) or capitulation which occurred on December 7, 2018. On that day, Litecoin recorded lows of $22.24 while generating volume that’s over 115% of its daily average. The heavy volume points to the emergence of a big player. Also, notice how Litecoin managed to stay above $22 for about a week. This is another indication the smart money protected the bottom.
LTC/USD Selling Climax
Automatic Rally
The third similarity is the automatic rally (AR) after the selloff. The AR happens due to the selling relief provided by the conclusion of the SC. With reduced selling, buyers can easily push the price up. In the case of Litecoin, the AR drove the price to as high as $36.78 on December 24.
LTC/USD Automatic Rally
Secondary Test
The fourth similarity to the Wyckoff Accumulation is the secondary test (ST). During this stage of the accumulation, the price revisits previous lows to test the supply and demand. In Litecoin’s case, the ST coincides with the PS at $27.
LTC/USD Secondary Test
Last Point of Support
Like clockwork, Litecoin printed two last points of supports (LPS). The LPS is described as a previous resistance that was flipped into support. For instance, the first LPS was posted on January 13, 2019 when the market was trading at $30. Notice how the market struggled to go above this level between December 17 – 20, 2018. On January 13, Litecoin flipped this into support.
LTC/USD first last point of support
The second LPS of $32 was printed on February 2, 2019. Notice how Litecoin struggled to go above $32 from January 13 to February 1. When the market conquered this level, it did not look back.
LTC/USD second last point of support
Signs of Strength
Lastly, Litecoin showed signs of strength (SOS) on February 8 when it took out resistance of $40 with heavy volume. The volume printed on that day was over 390% of its daily average. To put that into perspective, that was Litecoin’s highest volume in one year.
LTC/USD signs of strength
With so many striking similarities with the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic, we believe that Litecoin has completed this phase of the market cycle. Next comes the markup, which is most commonly known as the uptrend or the bull run. For this cycle, our minimum target is $110.
Bottom Line
Claiming that Litecoin is ready for a bull run may sound absurd to many. However, we dissected the market’s movement over the last few months and discovered that it has most likely completed a Wyckoffian Accumulation phase. If that’s the case, our minimum target for the markup is $110.
