Most are underestimating the impact of technology on job loss. This is a topic that is well discussed with people on both sides actively debating the subject. However, even thought who are on the side of technological unemployment appear to miss a large chunk of what is taking place.
The reality is that few truly expand their vision to see how long the tentacles of technology truly is. Most focus upon the near impact zone, omitting to see the expansiveness of what takes place.
For example, many could guess how video conferencing would impact how workers interacted with each other. Yet, how many understood the impact upon commercial real estate? Even today, we still have people who believe the remote work idea is just temporary and will revert back to "normal" once the fears of the pandemic subside.
We are not going back. This is the new normal. Technology does not reverse course nor do people once they embrace it. What this means is the change is permanent and going to keep growing.
It is a lesson that needs to be applied across the board.
The challenge with seeing the impact is that technology is multi-layered in terms of what it affects. It is rather simple to see the first generation yet it takes some foresight to delve to the second and third layer.
Let us use an example of how this works.
We will focus upon autonomous driving. This is a topic that gets a lot of attention and is certainly going to be something we deal with in the future. How soon this is a reality is anyone's guess. However, we can safely say it will be in place by the end of the decade. This should give us a bit of room to maneuver.
By the year 2030, if autonomous driving is our reality, what jobs do you think will be affected?
This is something that is discussed and we, naturally, see estimates of tens of millions of driving jobs will disappear. We have taxi and Uber drivers who will be replaced. Truckers are going to be made obsolete. Basically, anyone who drives for a living is going to be out of a job.
Anyone who researched this subject in the slightest is not surprised by these statements. It is the level of analysis we see all the time.
Is it sufficient though?
We need to remember that technology has a multi-layered impact.
The real numbers emerge when we go to much greater levels of analysis.
For example, using the autonomous driving, we see a host of other jobs that will be affected. To what degree is not known but there will be some less.
What percentage of EMS calls are due to auto accidents? I once asked an EMT I knew and she said at least half her calls were to car wrecks. With autonomous driving, these go away.
We can ask the same question about emergency room visits. What percentage of them are related to vehicles crashing into each other?
Then we delve into the chiropractors and pain management offices. What about Big Pharma that produces pain killers that people disabled in car accidents eat like candy? In other words, what is the economic impact upon the medial establishment?
Of course, if we aren't destroying our cars by smashing them, we do not have to repair or replace them. This affects the auto body shops as well as the car dealerships. We can toss in insurance adjustors since they have nothing to look at. In fact, the entire insurance industry takes a hit since they cannot keep charging the premiums they do if people are not playing bumper cars.
Next we have to consider how things will change on a boarder scale. What if some cars that are hired end up being like cars on a train. Perhaps one needs to travel to a city 8-10 hours away. Presently, the choice is drive it or fly. Will short hop air travel be affected? Perhaps one simply get a "sleeper car" and travel overnight to the city while resting up.
How does this affect the motel industry? People obviously will not be stopping overnight if they are traveling while sleeping.
As we can see, the situation gets a lot more complex. While there will not be a 100% job elimination rate like at the first level, there is bound to be some impact. That means companies will have less business, resulting in greater job losses. At these levels, it might only be 10% or 15% but that soon adds up.
The issue is that a number of industries are affected, more than we first took a look at. This is how things usually work. Of course, if you ask those people who end up getting laid off why they lost their jobs, few will say because of technology. The reality is they didn't even make the connection yet that is exactly what happened.
Of course, a case could be made that this was taking place over a long period of time. Here is the United States participation rate. Notice how much it dropped over the past 20 years, even before COVID.
The tentacles of technology go much further than people tend to think.
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