This is another topic that is hotly disputed.
The remote work issue has triggered a lot of debate. Elon Musk is a noted advocate for people being in this office. This is something he espoused with regards to his companies. Now, he is one of the people helping to push it at the government level.
So why do I say we are looking at the end of offices? Simply because it is something that is already happening. We are seeing offices in cities such as San Francisco being converted to residential units.
The question is whether we are dealing with isolated situations or this is a larger trend?
I think the answer lies in looking at the past.
This is a future that is difficult for people to see. When we shift radically from the norm, people tend to get overwhelmed.
Offices are such a basic part of our lives and society that it is almost very difficult to envision anything else. However, that is just our bias towards what is presently part of our society.
We have to remember things were diffierent in the past.
There was a time when the majority of the population worked on farms. To most, that would seem like an absurd concept today. There are still some who run family farms. However, it is no longer the norm.
Of course, the make up of the labor force changed with the industrial revolution. We have to remember, during that period, that most people were employed in factories. The manufacturing sector was one of the larger employers.
Once again, this is no longer the case. In spite of the total output in manufacturing over the last 30 years, we are doing that with 1/3 less people. What was the norm changed.
So why do we presume that offices will remain the standard? The likelihood of things not evolving past this is small. Economies go through transformations. With the advancement of the digital age, we are embarking upon a massive shift, probably in a short period of time.
The implications are more than just where people show up for work.
One thing that is going to coincide with this evolution is the end of suburbs. People bmake many of their decisions around where to live based upon the job prospects. For the last 80 years, this was mostly the citiies. Over the decades, surrounding areas emerged to house the city workers. The addition to retail and commercial to these areas means the urban sprawl was large.
This could be ending in the next few decades.
With automation progressing, we are going to see a great deal of knowledge work replaced. This could happen by the middle of the next decade. If that is the case, there is no need for all that office space. Computers do not require offices. It is not an accident that data centers are one of the most hottest sectors in construction.
Ultimately, we could see cities emerging as a destination for recreation. People will travel for the weekend or an overnight visit based upon some entertainment choice. Sporting events, plays, and museums will still reside in the major cities. The people, however, could be moving further out, occupying areas that are less populated.
It might take a couple decades for this to unfold. However, when we look at this from an evolutionary scale of society, that is not a long time.
