Raoul Pal is one of the best known macro-economists in the cryptosphere. He is a noted Bitcoin bull, unapologetically pushing the largest cryptocurrency for years.
His medium term forecast was always aggressive but now it is through the roof.
So what does Pal see?
On the high side, he can envision Bitcoin hitting $300,000 in the next 18 months. This is up from a previous target of around $200,000.
Of course, this is not so novel. We see many people making large Bitcoin predictions, especially as the bull started to rage. However, Pal is not late to the party.
He also is not an innocent bystander. He previously stated that 70% of his wealth is tied up in Bitcoin. Basically, he is a man who puts his money where his convictions lie.
Thus far, we have yet to see the largest players in the world enter the Bitcoin fray. While some of the companies are impressive, the institutions with the most money also tend to be the most conservative.
This is always how it goes with new technology. Many are quick to adopt while the majority take is slower. We witnessed this with the Internet. Yet one day, we wake up and everyone, including your grandmother, is shopping on Amazon.
Pal also has the advantage of being in contact with a lot of people from the financial industry.
“Yesterday alone, I was speaking to the founder of one of the largest investment firms in America. Investment advisors alone have $5 trillion in assets, and he’s trying to get all of his advisors and advise all the others as soon as the ETF is launched to get up to 1% of assets. I mean, that’s $500 billion from the investment advisors alone.”
That is massive potential. The fact that there is no Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC is likely keeping a lot of money on the sideline. However, this will not be the case forever. We are seeing custodial services for cryptocurrency being improved and started to be accepted by the financial sector.
In speaking with the individual from this one company, they have the potential, alone, to dump more into a Bitcoin ETF than the value of the entire market cap of the currency presently is.
This is how much money Wall Street has.
Pal later went onto state:
“I use a number of measures. I use technical analysis, logarithmic charts. I use the stock-to-flow ratio… I use a whole number of different yardsticks… They all basically come to the same thing. They basically come to: We’re going to be somewhere between $500,000 and a million dollars within five years, and we should be somewhere between $100,000 and $300,000 in the next 12 to 18 months.”
Here we have a guy who is accustomed to looking at markets and sizing up their potential. His entire career was built upon the concept of following where capital was flowing and being in position to benefit from it.
If institutions are considered "smart money" he is smarter money since he jumps in front of it. This is what separates the monumental returns from fair ones.
Pal is confident on Bitcoin over the next half decade and he is not alone.
So is $300,000 on the horizon? What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comment section.
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