This is a tough one to answer.
In my view, we are going to see massive job elimination due to AI. Technologists usually talk about the fact that, historically, technology always "created more jobs than it destroyed". As I touch upon in the past, the labor force participation rates, both in the US and globally, peaked decades ago.
That means we did not see job creation keep pace with the growth in population.
What will the impact of AI be? Actually, is it already here?
ExxonMobil announced that it will lay off 2,000 people, roughly 3%-4% of the workforce. This is just one company in a long line that are cutting their employment ranks.
While this is consistent across the oil industry, there is an opportunity to question what is driving it. In fact, this should be done across the board.
Right now, in the US, job creation is sluggish. ADP reports that recent hiring was at a 16 year low, with major corporations adding only 33K jobs last month.
Typically this is consistent with a sluggish economy. That certainly is the case here. We had signs for the last year that things were slowing. There is another factor that is starting to crop up.
We can see this in the technology sector. Actually, this was something that started in 2024 and is still transpiring.
The tech layoff wave is still kicking in 2025. Last year saw more than 150,000 job cuts across 549 companies, according to independent layoffs tracker Layoffs.fyi. So far this year, more than 22,000 workers have been the victim of reductions across the tech industry, with a staggering 16,084 cuts taking place in February alone.
So technology companies cut 150K jobs in 2024, while enjoying record stock prices? We can see how the industry is shifting, before our eyes.
It is easy to be lazy and play politics in this situations. However, we have the benefit of two administrations, both witnessing the same problem.
Salesforce was one company that was open about what was taking place. It announced that it would not hire any software engineers in 2025 while still looking to increase their coding output by 30%.
According to Washington, AI has enabled Salesforce to reassign 500 customer service workers to other roles at the company this year, resulting in a cost savings of $50 million. The company is also hiring fewer software engineers as its current staff use AI to become more productive.
If this is what is known, what is unknown?
I think we are witnessing a giant shift that few are willing to talk about.
Executives across the board still maintain the narrative that they are using AI to enhance the productivity of workers. Certainly this is being done in many instances.
That said, we cannot believe they will hesitate to eliminate people the second it is possible. The advancement of AI over the last two years makes this seemingly more likely.
If corporate leaders stated to the public what was coming, there would be panic. Hearings would he held in Washington to try and stop the flow.
We also could see many employees quit. These are the early days of AI implementation. Humans are still needed. Companies do not want a mass exit until they are ready. Layoffs are on their terms, when it best suits them. The masses quitting in unison does not benefit the corporations.
This is only going to accelerate as the technology improves and people build applications utilizing it.
We even has Tilly Norwood, an AI actress trying to make it in Hollyood. Many surmise that Sora will completely change the way films are made in the future.
Gemini estimated that nearly 200K jobs in Hollywood could be affected by AI.
It is starting to spread. How much AI is affecting the job market is unclear. There are, however, some signs that it is beginning.
