If you think the last couple years were wild, as they say, you ain't seen nothing yet.
We are moving further into the world of automation. The cost of intelligence is plummeting faster than the stock market after Trump's tariffs.
EpochAI does tremendous work establishing metrics to measure how things are progressing with AI. This article will be using their data to exhibit how things are moving.
At the core of intelligence (synthetic) is compute. This is something widely discussed. Those who understand Moore's Law can trace the progress over the last 4 decades to this single phenomenon. As the cost of compute comes down, economic output increases.
It is what drives the economic productivity feedback loop.
We can also chart how this is leading to the age of hyperacceleration.
The graphic above explains it all. To fully grasp what we are dealing with, it is crucial to understand that it will be the basis for the entire economy. Every industry will eventually be affected and follow this model.
By the way, it is the part on the bottom right (AI investments improve computing infrastructure), that emphasizes the economic change I wrote about, the shift from labor to capital. Capital will be driving everything which brings up another set of problems not being addressed by our leaders.
We are seeing a massive amount of capital being thrown at AI. It leads to the idea that perhaps we are dealing with a bubble. This is not the case.
Take a look at this image, along with what is written at the bottom. Once again, EpochAI clearly describes what is occurring.
These large investments will have a future payoff for the companies in total. Naturally, some might lose for various reasons. The idea of winners and losers will not go away. Some companies will simply miscalculate where things are heading.
However, when we take the aggregate, this is what will happen.
EpochAI is forecasting the path of automation. Due to the declining cost of compute, i.e. intelligence, the amount invested, over time, for increasing output will dwindle. Their projects are 2026 for takeoff.
As we can see, both projections presume a flat investment as a percentage of output over the next 8 years. Yet, in spite of that, the economic value generated will skyrocket.
This is impact of 40 years worth of Moore's Law into a decade.
By the early 2030s, even the conservative model has the percentage of automation being over 60%. Think about that, more than half the economy activity is automated compared to a minor percentage today.
How does this change things?
On November 30, 2022, the entire world changed. That was the day OpenAI released ChatGPT3. Coupled with a nice user interface, the number of users skyrocketed.
It is now almost 30 months later and we see something interesting. Chatbots are everywhere. They are being incorporated into platforms. Anyone who visits technology sites is bound to see an article about a new one on a weekly basis.
For example, Sentient seeks to bring AI search with reasoning to the masses with its fully open source model. In other words, the capabilities are offered to anyone with an Internet connection.
This is how quickly things multiply and spread.
The pace of compute advancement is not slowing down. We already saw Nvidia announce its Rubin line of GPUs, slated for release in 2026.
Hyperacceleration, in economic terms, means the singularity. Here is where we see somewhere around a 30% annual increase in GDP. It seems absurd until we look at the first chart.
"Ai automation increases economic growth."
Here is what is might look like:
This is what hyperacceleration looks like. There is obviously a lag, something that many will overlook as we are immersed in the instant gratification mindset. If something doesn't happen in a few weeks, it gets dismissed.
We are not dealing with something that is decades out. The impact of this will likely be seen in the next couple years.
For most, they operate based upon the "I will believe it when I see it". By then, many of the opportunities will have passed. We could also be dealing with a situation where many are backed into a corner as labor value is almost worthless.
