I keep converting my HBD for HIVE on the internal market, though I don't think that the rate is the best available, but it is good enough. I know that some people are stacking HBD in the hope of a repeat performance like back in 2017 when SBD was pumped to the moon, but I am not sure if that will happen this time and, if people remember, a good conversion rate back then was about 1:8 and getting 1:5 was decent. Currently, The conversion rate of HBD:HIVE is about 1:7 on the internal market and I figure that if that pump in HBD doesn't come, the price of HIVE will outperform the rate of HBD. Is it more likely that HBD will go over 7 dollars or, Hive go over a dollar? This is part of the game.
Since HBD isn't really a pegged token, I also wonder why it is kept around, as it tends to add complexity to an already difficult to grasp economics and perhaps it would be better if HBD was removed and SMTs replaced them on the second layer, to remove confusion. Having one core token issued rather than two will also allow for cleaner calculations - as currently curation only earns HP, as does witness rewards - but author rewards are split ad the Hive Development Fund (HDF) pays out in HBD. It makes for a lot of confusion and guesswork when it comes to calculating what is actually going on, as well as the problems with the dynamics of the platform in regards to inflation, as the HBD conversion affects the amount of HIVE in circulation. This isn't my area though, but I haven't really heard many compelling arguments to keep HBD, other than how fantastic it would be to have a native stable coin - which I would agree with, if it was stable.
The recent pump in SBD should be an indication of exactly what price means in regards to a project - nothing. Currently, the value of a token and the practical value of a project are very much independent values, with very little connecting them. This is also the case for Hive as a platform too, where the value of the token is not an indication as to the value of the ecosystem being built and even if it pumps hard, that is also not an indication. Essentially, a valuable project will gather weight over time and while there will be periods of volatility, will eventually start to stabilize, as users start to settle into patterns of behavior. This is pretty much the only way there can be sustainability over time.
Hive has the benefit of being an ecosystem of many projects however and with second-layer tokens that act independently based on owned community development, these projects can see a lot of volatility individually, while Hive itself slowly builds in value over time as the infrastructure beneath. Infrastructure ownership is valuable, which is why companies compete heavily to build infrastructure and operating over time is lucrative. While everyone spends their time on the internet, they don't seem to pay any attention to how they are actually accessing the internet, with most service providers renting the bandwidth from the owners. I guess at some point, applications will do similar, where perhaps some portion of their own token will be diverted to cover infrastructure providers, rather than own it themselves - though that might be some way away - but I think that it would create a more stable and valuable economy as there will be more intertwined skin in the game.
I think we already see this overlap on Hive where there are tokenized communities like LEO that not only leverage the infrastructure and community, but create a layer of additional game, where users are able to build their stake in both areas and also have to make decisions as to which they value more. For example, LEO is a great project but because it is small, it really requires distribution of the token widely. In my experience, people who buy their way in tend to have a greater attachment and motivation for what they have bought - making it more valuable personally. Some of my earnings I sell, because while I think that there is a huge amount of potential as a holder, I also want a wide amount of users to hold. I hope one day people will say, "I bought my LEO from that idiot Taraz really cheap and now I am wealthy". There is already plenty of cheap HIVE on the market, so I will keep hodling that, like I have always done, buying it when I can so that one day I can say - "I bought my HIVE from idiots..."
For me, wealth development is of course a big part of the game to be played, but I want the entire ecosystem of crypto to develop and benefit a far greater percentage of people than what the current global economy rewards. This means distribution, but the participants have to value what they have, which means taking responsibility and ownership - I think the projects that encourage not only ownership, but a userbase and a culture that is supportive of participants will do well over time, but this is a challenge in crypto currently as we have seen that most will still look out for themselves, even if they have to steal in order to do so - if this becomes the norm, crypto will just be a rebuild of what we already have and eventually see all value in the same percentage of hands as now, with many being the same hands.
I believe that we are at an interesting crossroads in the evolution of the cryptosphere, where the decisions participants make now are going to impact on the course for the years to come. I have the sense that a lot of people are going to go short for personal gain, such as those who will be back posting on a centralized blockchain for tokens at any cost. Fair enough, it is all part of the game in the economics, but it is likely to have an impact on the long term outcomes also. Eventually, I hope that the projects with communities built upon them will be the ones that garner the attention and thrive, while the ones that are concerned with profits for the few will be those that all into obscurity.
But for now, people will act on price as an indicator of quality in the same way that people still tend to judge a book by its cover, despite the warnings to the contrary.
What are your thoughts on HBD - worth keeping around?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]