A guy asks his friend, "who are you voting for?"
The friend responds that he’s a Democrat, because his father was a Democrat and his grandfather was a Democrat.
The guy says, "That's crazy! If you father had been a horse thief and your grandfather had been a horse thief, then what would you be?"
The friend thinks about this a moment and then says,
“I guess then I’d be a Republican!”*
That is a very old joke, but it came to mind as there will be three generations of men from one family working on our house tomorrow, which is quite incredible in this day and age. Back in the day however, it was common that sons would take after their fathers, but it is generally not the case now, with many children trying to do something completely different. I think that the ability to diversify jobs is a testament to the rise of education systems, as well as a relaxing of class boundaries and some cronyism, as a child is no longer limited to the skills that they are able to learn in the home and there are opportunities to apply for jobs, without having a prior relationship with decision makers.
But, I think that this family have made a good call, with the 18 year old (the third in line) just getting up to speed and helping his dad, his uncle and his grandfather, while learning the skills of the trade. He will of course have to get officially qualified in order to have his business and get insurance to cover his work, but that seems that it will be an arbitrary process later.
Why I think it is a good decision is that for a long time to come, I suspect that this kind of work is both going to be in demand and scarce, as there is a shrinking pool of skilled workers in the field. Also, it is in an area that will be difficult to automate and outsource to robots. I do think that new buildings will increasingly have automation used to build components and put them together like Lego houses, but there is a long legacy line of work to come, with a lot of investment globally held in real estate that is far from uniform.
I have read a few stories from Australia how trades are becoming among the higher paid positions in the labor force, as there is a lack of interest from the young to learn the skills, because the jobs are both hardwork and far from glamorous. But, I think that with the improving "gig economy" and technology like blockchain to connect, review and build trust among supplier and consumer directly, those who take up tools will be glad they did, at least from the financial perspective.
The future of employment is going to change radically in the next couple decades, as automation increasingly takes bites out of the skills that previously only a human could do. One of the companies I consult does a lot of welding work, but it has been steadily getting more specialized and the work of human more complex, as robotic arms and automated machinery has been closing out the easier jobs, with increasing precision. In Finland, there is not only a shortage of high-end welders which cost a premium, there is a shortage of apprentices entering into training, as the youth aren't interested, despite the pay potential.
This is going to have a large future impact on all kinds of things, including the mobility of a workforce and the potential for skilled labor to move, as robotics isn't going to be able to close all necessary skill shortages. Yes, there will likely be new lines of work being generated in the new economies too, but will there be enough work for all of the people who require an income? Unlikely. Which is why the economies will be forced into radical change, with UBIs and the increasing conversation around the taxation on automation starting to shift toward reality.
But, for those with an employable skill that can't be replicated by a machine, there is likely going to be a fair bit of work for some time to come, although it will eventually shift as design innovation chips away at the need for refurbishment and renovation.
I think that while the past has always indicated we have the potential to move onto new things as technological progress fills in the lower levels, i think that this round is going to leave us largely twiddling our thumbs, as so many of the skills that are demanded won't be attractive to learn. Plus, I think that a lot of the children today and in the future, won't have the fundamental skills required to get into these areas, even if they wanted to.
I liken it to creating a culture where 90% of the population are illiterate, but the only open jobs are as writers. But, the AI, automation and robotics isn't going to slowly creep into a field and take over, it is going to sweep through every field simultaneously and offer so much advantage and convenience, that not only will corporations welcome and keep driving the progression, we as consumers will too, as it will offer more of what we want at a lesser price, even though that lower price is because it is increasingly removing our very potential to earn.
There are ways around the dystopia, but that is going to rely on a paradigm shift in how we organize the world, which would have to be organized and accepted globally. Currently, we fight about skin color and minor differences in belief - what are the chances of coming together on something like this?
This aside, I think it is going to be very difficult to be able to predict which individual skills are the best in 20 years from now, making an already largely antiquated education system even more irrelevant. but, from a job satisfaction point of view, I think it is pretty clear what will bring the most value to the individual, as it has likely remained largely unchanged through the history of our species; Creativity to satisfy purpose.
We are problem solvers and almost without variance, when we are able to create a solution for a perceived problem, we feel good about what we do. It doesn't matter what it is, whether working toward a cure for cancer or building a wall - the work we do that has meaning and the perception of a tangible result, gives us purpose and our understanding of who we are as a human, referenced against who we are within the group with which we share this space.
Our entire experience is based on the conditions we face, the decisions we make and how we feel about it all - and I see that those with purpose are those who have the best experience. There are targets for our energies, but I would say that the most valuable are those that are in service to each other, as it means taking care of ourselves in the process and when it comes to skills, demand* means that someone else has a problem and is need of a solution.
Are you a problem solver?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]